A newly launched study highlights that powering even just a fraction of vehicles with e-fuels in 2050 would require new offshore wind-farms covering an area the size of Denmark.
According to the study, powering just the 10% of cars with hydrogen and 10% with e-diesel would require 41% more renewables in 2050 than if they were electric vehicles running on batteries.
This study notes that there is sufficient renewable electricity potential within the European Union to decarbonize road, shipping and aviation by 2050. Yet, the significant land area required and water demand for production of electrofuels could mean that a portion of the renewable electricity and electrofuels will be imported to complement domestic production. The future costs of renewable electricity in other regions and the costs to produce and transport electrofuels to Europe will play a major role in determining the split between imports and exports in the coming decades.
It is added that if half of heavy-duty trucks were run on hydrogen and half on e-diesel, they would consume 151% more renewables in 2050 than if they were directly electrified. Transport & Environment (T&E), which commissioned the research, said the figures show hydrogen and e-fuels need to be deployed first where there are no alternatives – in aviation and shipping.
The report states that even if the decarbonization of heating and heavy industry in 2050 is achieved using only hydrogen, the renewable electricity required to produce this hydrogen remains within the limits of the available potential within the EU28 countries, when added to the needs to decarbonize the grid and transport.
This study identified the following key messages for policy makers concerning specific modes of transport:
- Focus on direct electrification for road transport, wherever possible, as it is the most efficient path to decarbonisation.
- Road transport will decarbonise more rapidly than shipping and aviation to 2030, but by 2050 shipping and aviation will dominate, requiring more electricity than road transport.
- Shipping is projected to be the largest consumer of renewable electricity by 2050 (30% of the total) of all the modes. Therefore, there should be a special policy focus on decarbonisation of the shipping sector.
- Policy decisions about zero-emission heavy-duty trucks in the early 2020s will have significant ramifications for electricity demand by 2030 and 2050.
- Small changes to the fuel mix of light road vehicles has a large impact on electricity requirements.
- The renewable electricity requirements to decarbonise aviation are relatively insensitive to fuel choice because all scenarios rely heavily on e-kerosene.
Geert De Cock, electricity and energy manager at T&E, commented that
The EU has the renewable electricity potential to achieve economy-wide decarbonisation, but the scale of the challenge should not be underestimated. The choices we make today could have massive repercussions on power demand in the future. For example, running just a fraction of vehicles on e-fuels would require offshore wind turbines covering all of Denmark. That doesn’t make any sense.
The study concluded that adopting a policy of “direct electrification where possible” is optimal for decarbonizing transport in the European Union because it requires the lowest amount of renewable electricity and has the lowest burden on Europe’s water resources of the scenarios considered.
To learn more about the study, click on the report herebelow
