A newly launched study indicates that the quarantined Diamond Princess although reduced the number of passengers who were infected by the coronavirus, the number could have been even lower if the passengers had been allowed to disembark the ship.
Now, the study published in the Journal of Travel Medicine compared the known transmission rates of the virus at the point of its origin in China’s Wuhan, to the transmission rate onboard the cruise ship.
By following a mathematical modeling, a team led by Prof. Joacim Rocklöv of Umeå University resulted that the initial rate aboard the cruise ship was found to be four times higher than that on land. If left unchecked throughout the period in which passengers were onboard – January 21 through February 19, the end of the quarantine period – roughly 2,920 out of the 3,700 people on board (about 80 percent) would likely have been infected.
The report highlights that the cruise ship conditions amplified an already highly transmissible disease; Population densities and mixing need to be taken into account in future modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in different settings.
Early evacuation of all passengers on a cruise ship- a situation with confined spaces and high intermixing- is recommended as soon as an outbreak of COVID-19 is confirmed.
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