The Gulf of Guinea has been the global epicentre of maritime crime but, throughout 2021 the trend of increasing incidents has declined significantly. Analyzing this trend, in its latest METIS Insight, Dryad Global analyzes the causes behind it.
As Dryad says, overall incidents of offshore piracy may have reduced throughout 2021, but the core components that drive piracy, and threaten vessels and crews operating within the region remain unaltered.
The integrity of the declining trend can be seen to be conditional upon long term political investment and focus upon the maritime domain, which in a country of vast complexity and competing priorities and set against the backdrop of a global pandemic and uncertain an economic climate, is less than assured
What is more, the fragility of the current downward trend in incidents also lies with the root causes that drive acts of piracy and provide the opportunity for such conditions to exist.
As Munro Anderson, Head of Intelligence, Dryad Global, explains, “it would be disingenuous at best, and dangerous at worst to interpret the decline in piracy volumes in 2021 as indicative of any fundamental or lasting change brought about by any one state or initiative.”
Claims of radically reduced risks within such a short timeframe are premature
In addition, while regional counter piracy efforts in 2021 are to be commended, they require long term investment, both politically and financially, says the report, with on shore investment arguably of greater importance than offshore assets.
Why piracy has declined
In seeking to explain the steep decline in piracy throughout the Gulf of Guinea it is important to consider the role of intent, says Mr. Anderson.
Piratical intent is the result of a confluence of factors at several levels. At the local level, piracy is primarily driven by poverty
Additional factors include unemployment, weak governance, corruption, community violence and militancy, established subgroup hostility to the state and the presence of established organised crime.
Such is the potency of poverty; individuals are rarely deterred from engaging in crime solely because of increased resources aimed at combatting such crimes
Dryad notes.
However, as was seen in the case of East African piracy originating from Somali coastal communities, the presence of large multinational naval coalitions dramatically puts pressure on the physical act of piracy, but groups of disenfranchised young men were only incentivised away from piracy after the launch of onshore programs of economic development and reform.
Throughout 2021 there has been little substantive improvement in these core conditions throughout the disparate communities of Niger Delta states
explains Mr. Anderson.
This situation is further compounded by the impact of the COVID pandemic on national resources and international assistance.
In fact, 2021 has seen an increase in riverine criminality involving attacks on local populations and riverine communities and a new militant grouping under the aegis of the Bayan-Men has unleashed a campaign of violence and disorder against multinational oil companies within the region, motivated by a perceived lack of community incentive and involvement.
Without a tangible improvement in the conditions onshore that create a fertile setting for piracy, it is near impossible to argue that there has been any alteration or deterrence against individuals’ intent to engage in piracy
Dryad concludes.