The Britannia Club has partnered with CONOVAH, a Danish consultancy specialising in mental well-being and psychological support for seafarers, to explore the psychology of decision-making in safety-critical situations.
As informed, the objective was to achieve a more profound understanding of how these complex situations evolve and provide practical tools on how these can be managed to mitigate the risks of an incident. This paper serves as a short introduction to this complex topic and is relevant to almost everyone tasked with managing safety-critical situations within ship operations – from officers to ratings, marine pilots, and shore personnel.
Decision-making is the process of choosing between different options or courses of action. In more complex terms, decision-making involves a mix of cognitive and emotional processes influenced by various external and internal factors. It’s important to note that decision-making isn’t a one-size-fits-all process; different circumstances, like time constraints, limited resources, or incomplete information, can significantly impact how decisions are made. Recognising this variability is important for effective decision-making.
A holistic approach to safety in the maritime industry
- Risk assessment: The first step is to assess the risks involved in the situation. Identify potential hazards, evaluate their severity, and understand the likelihood of each hazard occurring. This analysis helps prioritise actions and resources.
- Situational awareness: Maintaining a clear and accurate understanding of the current situation is vital. This involves gathering information from various sources, monitoring conditions, and anticipating potential changes or developments.
- Training and preparedness: Decision-makers in safety-critical roles should undergo rigorous training and be well-prepared for handling emergencies. Simulations, drills, and experience play a significant role in improving their ability to respond effectively.
- Decision-making models: Employ established decision-making models to structure the thought process. Common approaches include the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act), the DECIDE model (Define the problem, Establish criteria, Consider alternatives, Identify the best alternative, Develop and implement a plan, Evaluate and monitor the solution), RPD (Recognition-Primed Decision, and the Cynefin framework (for categorising problems based on their complexity).
- Communication: Effective communication is vital in safety-critical situations, especially when multiple parties are involved. Clear and concise information sharing helps ensure that everyone is on the same page and makes well-informed decisions.
- Time pressure: Safety-critical situations often involve time constraints, and decision-makers must balance the need for quick action with thorough analysis. It’s crucial to avoid rushing into decisions without proper evaluation.
- Redundancy and contingency planning: Design systems with redundancy and backup plans in place to mitigate potential failures. This can help maintain critical functions even when primary systems encounter problems.
- Ethics and values: Decision-makers must consider ethical considerations and adhere to established safety protocols and standards. Balancing the potential risks with ethical and legal responsibilities is essential.
- Learn from past incidents: Analyse previous safety-critical incidents to understand the root causes and learn from them. This process of continuous improvement helps in avoiding similar mistakes in the future.
- Human factors: Understand the limitations and cognitive biases that humans may experience during high-stress situations. Account for these factors in decision-making and design systems that support human performance.
- Continuous evaluation: Decision-making in safety-critical situations is an iterative process. Continuously evaluate the effectiveness of decisions and adjust strategies based on real-time feedback and new information.
- Teamwork and collaboration: Encourage effective teamwork and collaboration among individuals involved in safety-critical tasks. A cohesive team can make better decisions by pooling expertise and supporting each other.
Navigation the complexity of decision-making in high-stakes scenarios
- MULTIPLE VARIABLES: Decision-makers often have to consider a range of factors, including safety protocols, human factors, and resource limitations.
- UNCERTAINTY In many cases, all the needed information isn’t available, or the situation is rapidly changing, adding a layer of uncertainty.
- TIME PRESSURE: The need for quick decisions, especially in emergency situations, can make the process even more challenging.
- COGNITIVE BIASES: Our minds are not always rational, and cognitive biases can affect the quality of the decisions made.
- TEAM DYNAMICS: Decisions are often not made in isolation but involve multiple stakeholders, adding the complexity of interpersonal relationships and communication.
- ETHICAL AND LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS: Balancing ethical obligations and legal responsibilities can complicate decision-making further.
- SYSTEMS AND TOOLS: The use of decision-support systems can aid in making choices but can also add complexity, especially if not well-designed or understood.
- TRAINING AND EXPERIENCE: Decision-makers with better training and more experience are generally better at handling complex situations, but training and experience can sometimes also lead to overconfidence.
- FEEDBACK LOOPS: Decisions have consequences, and these outcomes can influence future decisions, creating a dynamic, iterative process.
