Drewry released its outlook for 2022 forecasting that higher carrier profits would drive industry sales past $500 billion for the first time in 2022.
his made Drewry revise its earnings estimate to $200 billion for the full year. As Drewry explains, it estimates EBIT performance at $70.9 billion for the third quarter.
Considering that the industry was ahead of where they expected after nine months, Drewry had again upgraded its annual forecast for 2021 to $190 billion from its previous projection of $150 billion in profits.
Commenting on the development, Simon Heaney, Senior Manager, Container Research at Drewry, noted that “the pandemic and ensuing supply chain crisis is the primary driver of the supercharged carrier profits and share price bonanza.”
What is more, among the factors Drewry foresees for 2022 is a reduction in volatility in the spot market, expecting that the trend will continue to longer-term contracts, although they explain that they will be signed at much higher rates.
Overall, Drewry believes that the majority of risk from the highly unpredictable container market will calm dow with shippers in 2022, stating that 2022 will be another year of severe disruption.
In fact, it specifies that it would take all of 2022 to address the supply chain already factored in some further Covid-related disturbance.
However, container demand growth is losing some momentum, with carriers possibly facing further headwinds in the year ahead creating the expectation for moderating growth.