StormGeo’s Tropical Cyclone track uses multi-model ensembles and advanced analysis to narrow the “cone of uncertainty,” the area extending out from a storm on a forecasting map that projects a cyclone’s path.
The new Tropical Cyclone Multi-Model (TCMM) track technology is included in the latest versions of the onboard BVS and Routing Advisory Service. In addition, users will also receive color-coded graphics, four times a day, to quickly assess where the most likely tracks will occur.
“Understanding the likelihood of encountering a tropical cyclone on a given shipping route days in advance of the occurrence and having the benefit of time necessary to navigate away from the dangerous situation are vital for safe operations,” said Richard Brown, StormGeo ship operations CEO. “With our new technology, captains have information to help them make better decisions in the face of inherently erratic weather conditions.”
The industry-standard “cone of uncertainty” concept was generated by The National Hurricane Center (NHC) using historical data to demonstrate forecast error. However, this method is limited in its ability to display multiple possible tracks because the cone dimensions do not vary based on forecast uncertainty or confidence level. TCMM technology aims to address this, indicating the most likely path of a tropical cyclone and providing a range of possible alternate routes.