In its latest World Energy Transitions Outlook report, IRENA explains that in order to meet the 1.5°C target, all countries will need to expand renewable power generation capacity.
Energy efficiency efforts by G20 nations
As explained, efforts by G20 nations to double global energy efficiency are crucial, as these countries account for over 70% of global final energy demand. By 2030, G20 nations will contribute 84% of the world’s installed renewable capacity, and by 2050, 75%. To align with the 1.5°C pathway, G20 renewable capacity must almost triple by 2030 (around 9400 GW) and increase more than seven-fold by 2050 (around 24900 GW) compared to 2023 levels.
The role of electrification in decarbonisation
Electrification will play a key role in both decarbonising end-use sectors and reducing energy consumption. Since over 80% of global electricity is consumed by G20 nations, their electrification efforts are vital for achieving global energy efficiency targets. By 2030, G20 nations would need to meet 32% of their final energy consumption through direct electrification, up from 25% in 2022.
Innovative technologies for net-zero emissions
In addition to electrification and energy efficiency, G20 nations must lead the deployment of innovative technologies such as clean hydrogen and carbon capture to achieve global net-zero emissions by 2050.
Early investment in the clean hydrogen supply chain (electrolysis, fuel cells, transport pipelines, storage caverns, etc.) is vital to the uptake of hydrogen applications in end-use sectors and to carbon reduction goals. Green hydrogen could be key in mitigating emissions from harder-to-decarbonise sectors such shipping and heavy industry, where direct electrification is nearly impossible.
Under the 1.5°C Scenario, clean hydrogen use will rise from negligible levels to over 3% and 14% of total final energy consumption by 2030 and 2050, respectively. By 2030, G20 nations will produce and consume over 75% of global hydrogen supply, with their share slightly declining by 2050 as other countries adopt similar practices. Additionally, over 95% of CO2 emissions will be captured by G20 nations by 2030.
The future energy transition under the 1.5°C scenario
The 1.5°C Scenario envisions a transition led by renewable energy deployment, energy efficiency improvements, and electrification of end-use sectors. Electricity will become the primary energy carrier by 2050 due to its cost competitiveness and scalability, accounting for over 50% of total final energy consumption (TFEC). Clean hydrogen and its derivatives will also be critical in decarbonising industrial and transport sectors, where electrification is challenging. In industry, clean hydrogen can replace fossil fuels in iron, steel, and chemical production, while in heavy-duty transport, it can fuel long-haul aviation and shipping.
More effective energy planning can stimulate renewable energy investment by reducing risks and transaction costs, thereby establishing conditions conducive to attracting private capital
… said Francesco La Camera, Director-General, IRENA.
