BIMCO has released its Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook March 2025, highlighting the shifts in the US policy that supercharge market uncertainty.
Supply/demand balance
According to BIMCO, ship supply is expected to grow 6.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with deliveries in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 35-50% lower than the record-high reached in 2024.
As ships gradually return to normal routings in 2025, ship demand is forecast to fall 1-2% during both 2025 and 2026, contributing to a weakening supply/demand balance. Even if routings do not return to normal, the balance will still weaken.
Furthermore, US policy shifts, including increased import tariffs and port fees targeting Chinese operators and Chinese-built ships, have supercharged market uncertainty and could negatively impact the market.
According to the IMF, the world economy will grow 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, while the OECD has estimated that increased tariffs will significantly weaken growth in North America.
Global manufacturing PMI continues to indicate stability, hovering around 50, although it remains below 50 for the euro area. Retail sales in the US and EU remain on par with 2024 levels, and US consumer sentiment has fallen significantly due to import tariff increases.
The assumed gradual return to normal routings results in shorter sailing distances, leading to expected reductions in ship demand. Ship deliveries will average 1.7m TEU per year during 2025 and 2026, causing the fleet to grow 9.0% between the end of 2024 and 2026.
In addition, recycling is expected to increase as market conditions worsen if, as assumed, ships can begin to return to normal routings.
Congestion remains stable in most ports, but if implemented, the proposed fees hitting Chinese operators and Chinese-built ships could result in increased congestion in US ports. If ships can return to normal routings, it is expected that sailing speeds will gradually fall back towards 2023 levels.
Uncertainties and risks
The forecast contains greater downside risks than normal. President Trump’s drive to support US industries by increasing import tariffs could hurt container trade more than those included in the base case. Already implemented tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as on steel and aluminium imports and other threatened tariffs, must be expected to increase costs for US businesses and consumers, potentially driving inflation and interest rates back up.
Lower economic growth in the US would spill over to the global economy, driving down global growth. In addition, it must be considered the potential negative effects of countries responding to US tariff increases by imposing higher tariffs on imports from the US. We have attempted to account for these impacts by including an alternative scenario based on the OECD’s economic growth forecast.
However, the full effects of the tariff changes are still to be seen. To what extent US importers will be able to avoid the tariffs by finding suppliers in less affected countries is unknown, as is US consumers’ ability to absorb any increased costs.
As already mentioned, US consumers have already reacted by sending the US consumer sentiment index to its lowest level since November 2022. At this stage, the worst-case scenario, according to BIMCO, indicates that cargo volume growth could end 0.5 percentage points lower than in the base scenario, i.e., growth of 2.5-3.5% during 2025 and 2026.
