EIA launched its International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) forecasting that the global energy consumption will increase by about 50% from 2018 to 2050, coming from regions where the consumption of energy is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in non-OECD Asia.
The industrial sector, including refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, holds the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector—more than half of end-use energy consumption throughout the projection period. The energy use in the industrial sector rises more than 30% between 2018 and 2050 as consumption of goods increases.
Moreover, the increase in end-use consumption results in electricity generation will be 79% between 2018 and 2050; The residential sector will experience an electricity use as rising population and standards of living in non-OECD countries increase the demand for appliances and personal equipment. Electricity use also increases in the transportation sector as plug-in electric vehicles enter the fleet and electricity use for rail expands.
Renewable energy, as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, are the fastest-growing energy source between 2018 and 2050, surpassing petroleum and other liquids to become the most used energy source in the Reference case. The global renewable energy consumption will increase by 3.1% per year between 2018 and 2050, compared with 0.6% annual growth in petroleum and other liquids, 0.4% growth in coal, and 1.1% annual growth in natural gas consumption.
Moreover, global natural gas consumption is foreseen to rise more than 40% between 2018 and 2050, and total consumption reaches nearly 200 quadrillion Btu by 2050.
Global liquid fuels consumption increases up to 20% between 2018 and 2050, whereas overall consumption reaches more than 240 quadrillion Btu in 2050. Demand in OECD countries remains relatively stable during the projection period, but non-OECD demand increases by about 45%.
In addition, the report highlights that:
- Manufacturing centres are changing toward Africa and South Asia, especially India, resulting in energy consumption growth in those regions.
- Natural gas and petroleum product consumption is rising in Asia faster than supply is growing, potentially shifting global trade patterns and infrastructure investments.
- End-use consumption is increasingly shifting toward electricity.
- Falling generation costs, energy consumption growth, and policy work together to shift the electricity generation mix.
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