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Crude oil prices to average near $50 per barrel through 2022, says US EIA

In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), US EIA expects the price of Brent crude oil to increase from its December 2020 average of $50 per barrel to an average of $56/b in the first quarter of 2021. The Brent price is then expected to average between $51/b and $54/b on a quarterly basis through 2022. This comes as EIA expects global demand for petroleum liquids to be greater than global supply in 2021, especially during the first quarter, leading to inventory draws. Specifically, EIA expects that growth in crude oil production from members of the OPEC and partner countries (OPEC+) will be limited because of a multilateral agreement to limit production. Saudi Arabia announced that it would voluntarily cut production by an additional 1.0 million b/d during February and March. Even with this cut, EIA expects OPEC to produce more oil than it did last year, forecasting that crude oil production from OPEC will average 27.2 million b/d in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. Meanwhile, EIA forecasts that US crude oil production in the Lower 48 states—excluding the Gulf of Mexico—will decline in the first quarter of 2021 before increasing through the end of ...

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