According to DNV’s UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), the country is not on track to meet mid-century decarbonization targets and that the industry and government must mobilize a clear roadmap to attain ‘net zero by 2050’.
The report forecasts that while the energy landscape in the UK will continue to shift from fossil fuels, with almost half of the country’s energy demand being delivered by electricity in 2050, this will not be enough to meet the 100% reduction in emissions, legislated for in 2019.
Similarly, the UK will also not meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment of reducing emissions by 68% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement.
While the UK has made strong progress to reduce carbon emissions, the government’s absence of a committed roadmap and relevant business models to deliver on those ambitions is stalling the implementation needed to reduce emissions to the point where net zero goals can be achieved.
In positive news for domestic consumers, household energy expenditure is expected to halve, driven by increased electrification of household heating and passenger transport, however DNV’s report highlights that the transport and building sectors are the major remaining contributors to the total annual emissions by 2050.
Building emissions could be eliminated through a combination of boosting heat pump penetration up to 20 million households and decarbonizing the remainder by substituting natural gas with green hydrogen. Investment in underground hydrogen storage is essential in supporting the switch to green hydrogen and to take advantage of low-cost renewables.
We firmly believe the UK can meet its 2050 net zero objective, but this will require clear and early policy decisions, particularly focused around the decarbonization of heating in buildings and transport
Hari Vamadevan, executive vice president and regional director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems at DNV, said.
40% of transport emissions could be reduced by accelerating the uptake of EV/fuel cells for commercial vehicles through incentives and subsidies. Solutions aren’t as clear in aviation, and the abatement of the carbon goals is considered difficult within the timeframe. Feasible options would include offsetting these emissions through scaling large-scale implementation of Direct Air Capture, which requires close to GBP 150bn investment and/or via natural carbon sinks.
Almost half of UK’s energy demand will be delivered by electricity by 2050. Demand seasonality and variability in renewable sources require a smart and flexible system with investment in power grid infrastructure, as well as automation and analytics.
We must ensure we offer support for consumers that incentivizes change, while ensuring no sections of society are left behind. This change cannot come from government alone, it needs active participation, both as an individual and for many of us as part of the wider energy industry
Mr Vamadevan concluded.
