According to Moore Stephens’s latest Shipping Confidence Survey, shipping confidence achieved a four-year high in the three months to end-February 2018. The average confidence level expressed by respondents increased from 6.2 out of 10.0 in November 2017 to 6.4.
Confidence on the part of owners also reached a four-year high, up from 6.4 to 6.6, while managers’ confidence was up too, from 6.1 to 6.4. The rating for charterers, however, declined to 5.0 from 7.7 in November 2017. Confidence on the part of brokers, meanwhile, was down from 6.3 to 6.1.
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Confidence increased in Europe as well from 6.3 to 6.6, equalling the highest ever rating for this category of respondent in the life of the survey, which was launched in May 2008 with an average confidence rating across all respondents in all geographical areas of 6.8. Confidence was also up in Asia, from 5.7 to 6.3, and in North America, from 5.8 to 5.9.
Moreover, the possibility of a major investment or significant development from the respondents, over the next 12 months reduced 5.4 to 5.3 out of 10.0. Charterers’ confidence, however, increased to 6.2 from 4.0. Expectations on the part of owners and brokers were up from 5.8 to 5.9 and from 4.4 to 5.3 respectively, but down from 5.4 to 5.3 for managers. Asian respondents were less confident, but in North America the rating was up from 4.9 to 5.4. In Europe, the numbers were the same.
However, a major new investment over the next 12 months is more possible now than at any time in almost four years, even though finance will probably be more expensive to access.
24% said that demand trends will influence performance over the coming 12 months, followed by competition (19%) and finance costs (15%). The number of respondents expecting higher rates over the next 12 months in the tanker market decreased by 5%s to 39%.
Meanwhile, 54% expect higher rates in the dry bulk sector. In the container industry, 38% expect higher rates, and 12% anticipate lower rates.
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