Specifically, Sindre Knutsson, vice president on Rystad Energy’s gas markets team stated that the US will be independent on a monthly basis.
Rystad Energy predicts that in its next monthly issue, EIA will reveal that the US has been self-sufficient in primary energy for a full 12-month period, from October 2018 through September 2019.
Knutsson commented that
his milestone follows a strong period of growth in both hydrocarbon and renewable resources, and we forecast that the US will have primary energy surplus – and not a deficit – by February or March 2020, depending on the intensity of the winter season.
According to Rystad Energy:
- US's total primary energy production will rise from 95 quadrillion Btu in 2018 to 138 quadrillion Btu in 2030.
- Crude oil and natural gas production will be the two main contributors to primary energy supply growth in the period, with oil accounting for 75% of the growth and gas 38%.
- Crude output driven by production in the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays is expected to increase from 21.5 quadrillion Btu (10.32 million barrels per day) in 2018 to 39 quadrillion Btu (18.73 million bpd) in 2030.
- The growth in natural gas production is driven by supply increases in the Marcellus, Haynesville and Utica basins, but there is also a significant amount of associated gas from the Permian, which will bring total natural gas production to 40 quadrillion Btu (about 1.1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas) in 2030 compared to 29 quadrillion Btu (0.8 Tcm of gas) in 2018.
Moreover, Rystad Energy expects that primary energy production from renewable sources, including hydropower generation will increase to 63%, whereas growth from solar and wind is projected at about 357% and 257%, respectively.
The demand is expected to increase of about 0.4% from 2018 to 2030.
The emerging energy surplus will make the US less vulnerable to foreign energy-related politics and facilitate growing exports. While renewable energy output will be consumed domestically, the future for oil and gas exports is bright
... Knutsson stated.
Concluding the US fossil fuel surplus will rise to 12 million boepd by 2030, thus allowing for an even larger increase in natural gas and liquids exports. In comparison, the US had a peak fossil fuel deficit of 14 million boepd in 2005.