The EU Commission has assessed the final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) submitted by Member States, identifying progress toward the 2030 climate and energy targets.
Based on Member States’ projections, the Commission estimates a decrease in total net GHG emissions of around 54% in 2030 compared to 1990, showing that the EU is well on track to reach the 2030 target. This relies on the full implementation of Member States’ existing and additional policies and measures, as well as EU policies.
Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) sector performance
GHG emissions from sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) are expected to decrease by around 38% in 2030 compared to 2005, about 2 percentage points short of the EU’s 40% target.
Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)
Though several Member States have stepped up efforts in the land sector compared to the draft plans, there is still a gap of about 45–60 MtCO₂ eq. (equivalent to about 100% to 140% of the target of additional removals) compared to the 2030 target under the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation.
Climate adaptation measures
On climate adaptation, only some final NECPs sufficiently integrate preparedness and resilience to climate impacts. A limited number of plans consider measures in terms of water resilience.
Renewable energy targets
Most Member States present national contributions that are in line with the EU’s 2030 binding target for a renewable energy share of at least 42.5%. However, a limited ambition gap of 1.5 percentage points remains.
Energy efficiency efforts
Despite improvements in Member States’ contributions to the EU’s energy efficiency target of 11.7% by 2030, an ambition gap of 31.1 Mtoe remains for final energy consumption and 47.3 Mtoe for primary energy consumption. For final energy consumption, this translates to an EU ambition level of 8.1%.
Energy security developments
Across the plans, energy security is bolstered by lower gas consumption and more diversified energy sources, including an increased role for nuclear energy in power generation and heat production in several Member States. However, infrastructure must be further adapted to a decarbonised energy system, increased electrification based on variable renewables, and fast-changing threats such as climate change and cybersecurity.
Internal energy market integration
On the internal energy market, Member States have introduced new measures to promote flexibility, stabilise markets, and facilitate the penetration of renewables. However, additional measures are needed to develop cross-border interconnections and further integrate markets.
Industrial competitiveness and innovation
The final plans show an increased focus on the competitiveness of industry, resilience of supply chains, innovation, and skills development. However, with some exceptions, sufficiently specific and actionable objectives in these areas are often missing.
Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies
About half of the plans recognise the importance of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. Nevertheless, a list of existing subsidies, concrete timelines, and measures to phase them out are largely missing.
Just transition considerations
On just transition, the plans largely describe the impacts of the energy transition on skills and training needs but lack detailed analysis of social and employment impacts, particularly for vulnerable households, workers, and regions. More concrete measures and a clear indication of funds to mitigate these impacts would have been an asset. Moreover, Member States do not provide a sufficient analytical basis for preparing their Social Climate Plans.
Addressing energy poverty
Most Member States address energy poverty and outline structural or income support measures, with an emphasis on energy efficiency, renovation of buildings, and decarbonisation. At the same time, only a few Member States provide clear definitions of energy poverty or set specific reduction targets.
Investment planning and financing
Member States’ investment estimates have improved considerably compared to the draft plans, but further efforts are needed to refine them and develop a comprehensive strategy for mobilising public and private finance to improve investor certainty and enable the NECPs to become effective investment plans.
Public consultation and participation
A clearer overview of the public consultation process for preparing the final NECPs is provided in most plans. However, participation processes could have been more inclusive and effective, offering more information and longer consultation timeframes.
