The plan stretches up to 2050, with Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development expecting that emissions would increase to the equivalent of 2.08 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2030.
The document includes four main scenarios:
- No government support
Under the basic scenario, which Russia believes is the most feasible, 2030 emissions levels would be up from 1.58 billion tons in 2017, or 51% of 1990 levels.
By 2050, this scenario projects that emissions would fall to 1.99 billion tons, or 64% of 1990 levels.
Nevertheless, as Bellona says, the plan's 2030 goal is more ambitious than Russia’s existing target to limit 2030 emissions to 75% of 1990 levels.
The plan will now be reviewed by ministries and business associations before being submitted to President Vladimir Putin for approval.
Russia will also seek to reduce demand for fossil fuels and boost renewable energy. It also outlines some benefits from global warming, such as greater access to shipping routes via the Northern Sea Route in Russia’s Arctic north.
However, the country has received critisism for the plan, which experts say that the strategy it outlines is not ambitious enough. Nevertheless, they recognized that it marks an increase of interest by Russian business and political elites in tackling climate change.
What is more, the plan’s basic scenario will not reach carbon neutrality by 2050, but emissions will begin falling after 2030.
According to the intensive approach, however, emissions could be cut by 48% by 2050, with Russia becoming carbon-neutral late this century.