The latest IAPH World Ports Tracker report has been published, summarising results from the second half of 2023 as reported by IAPH members during the first quarter of 2024.
Trends in port calls
According to IAPH, considering the global population of seaports, Q4 2023 revealed about 50% of respondents experiencing a positive trend in the calls of container ships, i.e., a year-on-year growth of more than 2%. For dry bulk carriers, tankers and gas carriers, and other cargo vessels, these figures amounted to 33%, 26% and 26% respectively. 13% of the responding ports realised a growth of more than 10% in container vessel calls. The percentage of liquid bulk and dry bulk ports recording in Q4 2023 a double-digit percentage growth is 7% and 10% respectively.
The number of ports that in Q4 2023 recorded a lower number of calls compared to the same quarter of the year before has remained significant, IAPH notes. About 40% of the ports reported a drop in container vessel calls, a figure that is the same for tankers and bulk carriers. However, in the latter cases, the share of ports reporting a decline of more than 10% is much higher: 14% for tankers and gas carriers, and other cargo vessels, 19% for dry bulk carriers and only 8% for container ships.
Container Volume Expectations
The overall results show that 55% of respondents expect a year-on-year annual growth rate in container volumes of more than 2% for the next twelve months. About one quarter of ports do not expect major changes in the handled TEU volume, while about 20% are preparing for a volume decline.
Bulk Market Predictions
In the dry bulk market, about half of the ports expect growth in calls over 2%, with more than one third of ports forecasting a mostly modest volume decline, IAPH informs. For liquid bulk flows, 48% of ports forecast growth of more than 2% in the next twelve months, with about 17% predicting a volume decline. In the ‘other cargo’ category, quite a few ports expect a positive volume development for project cargo, mainly related to energy transition projects.
Regional analysis
The regional analysis reveals that, among the four selected port regions, the port system in Southeast Asia and Oceania shows the highest share of respondents counting on a minimum container volume increase of 2% over the next twelve months, followed by the Mediterranean and North Europe. Up to a quarter of the responding ports of the four regions expect a TEU drop of more than 2% in the next twelve months.
Dry bulk market volume expectations
Southeast Asia and Oceania also has the highest volume expectations in the dry bulk market. The Mediterranean has the highest share of ports expecting a decline in dry bulk volume in the next 12 months. There are significantly more ports expecting volume increases in dry bulk compared to those counting on volume drops. In the tanker and gas carrier market, only the Mediterranean shows a share above 50% of ports expecting a volume growth of at least 2%.
Volume stabilisation and expectations in different regions
Half of the ports in Southeast Asia & Oceania count on a stabilisation of volumes, while the expectations in North America are evenly split between growth, stabilisation and decline. Also, in North Europe there is a fairly equal distribution between the three categories.
