The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase by 25% in Europe’s LNG imports in its Gas Market Report Q2 2025.
According to the IEA, global natural gas demand continued to expand through the 2024/25 heating season, with growth primarily driven by Europe and North America. Underground storage facilities and reserve mechanisms provided crucial flexibility to the gas system and ensured stable and secure gas supplies over the 2024/25 heating season.
Furthermore, in 2025, global gas demand growth is forecast to slow from the previous year amid tighter market conditions, while heightened macroeconomic uncertainties may also weigh on demand. Low gas storage levels and reduced piped gas exports from Russia to the European Union are expected to keep market fundamentals tight.
Supported by higher storage injection needs, Europe’s LNG imports are forecast to increase in 2025 to near their all-time highs. In contrast, China’s LNG imports are forecast to decline due to weaker domestic demand growth and the strong competition from Europe for flexible LNG cargoes.
Europe is set to drive LNG demand growth in 2025, with LNG inflows climbing to near all-time highs
Following the sharp decline in 2024, Europe’s LNG imports are set to recover in 2025. Europe’s LNG imports declined by 18% (or close to 30 bcm) in 2024. This trend was reversed in Q1 2025, when Europe increased its LNG imports by more than 20% (or over 9 bcm) y-o-y amid lower piped gas imports and stronger domestic demand.
Higher storage injection needs together with lower piped gas inflows are expected to support stronger LNG imports throughout the filling season. For the full year of 2025, Europe’s LNG imports are expected to increase by 25% (or over 30 bcm) and reach levels near to their all-time highs.
In contrast, Asia’s LNG imports are forecast to decline due to the strong competion from Europe for flexible LNG cargoes. China’s LNG imports declined by around 25% y-o-y in Q1 2025, their steepest decline since the 2022 global gas crisis. This highlights the growing balancing role of China in the global gas market, supported by its gas-to-coal switching capability and flexibility options embedded in its vast portfolio of long-term LNG contracts.
