Hurricane Beryl, the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, is the earliest storm in history to reach Category 5 status before weakening to Category 4.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this explosive strengthening was fueled in part by exceptionally warm ocean temperatures. That heat was one of the factors behind NOAA’s prediction in May of an increased chance that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be above normal.
As NOAA informs, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be particularly active, driven by exceptionally high sea surface temperatures and the anticipated development of La Niña later this summer. La Niña reduces Atlantic trade winds and decreases wind shear, conditions that promote the formation and intensification of hurricanes. Currently, sea surface temperatures in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic are at levels typically seen in mid-September, providing ample energy for storm formation and rapid intensification.
Hurricane Beryl exemplifies these conditions, forming as a tropical depression on June 28, 2024, and quickly intensifying to a hurricane within 24 hours. It continued to rapidly strengthen, becoming a Category 4 hurricane in another day. Beryl’s formation as a Category 4 storm in June set a record for the earliest such event in the Atlantic, surpassing Hurricane Dennis from 2005. On July 2, Beryl reached Category 5 status, making it the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, surpassing Hurricane Emily of 2005. At its peak, Beryl became the strongest July hurricane on record with winds of 165 mph.
Best practices for ships sailing Atlantic in hurricane season
Britannia P&I Club advises that upon encountering a storm operators should:
- Continually compare the hurricane’s forecast track to the planned ship movement
- The 1-2-3 rule of thumb can be used for forecasting the error radius (100 Nautical Miles [NM] for 24 hr, 200 NM for 48 hr, 300 NM for 72 hr forecast) and to determine the danger area
- Plot the danger area chart to identify the areas to avoid based on the hurricane path.
- Determine at least 2 possible courses of action for the vessel to remain clear of the danger area
- Evaluate nearby ports or hurricane havens that could be used for avoidance if needed
- Calculate the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) to the cyclone for the potential courses of action using the latest forecasts
- Decide on which avoidance course to take and execute it, while continuing to closely monitor the hurricane progress
- Follow the SMS procedure for encountering heavy weather
- Vessels in ports should evaluate the protection offered by the port based on forecast wind direction and storm surge potential
- Decisions to leave port for avoidance must be made very early, considering safe departure time and avoidance routes.
The early and rapid development of Beryl is notable given that the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) typically doesn’t form until September 1. This unusual activity is attributed to the record warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear, which are ideal for hurricane intensification. The region where Beryl formed usually experiences higher wind shear and less favorable conditions for hurricanes this early in the season.
The early formation of such a powerful hurricane has raised concerns about the rest of the hurricane season, which runs through November. With the predicted onset of La Niña and continued warm ocean temperatures, scientists warn that the conditions are set for potentially more frequent and intense hurricanes as the season progresses, especially towards its peak in September.
