TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2023

Momentum scenario

TotalEnergies’ Momentumscenario is a forward-looking approach integrating the decarbonization strategies of NZ50 countries, as well as the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) of the other countries. It implies:

• significant energy efficiency gains in all countries (2.4%/y over the period 2021-2050 vs. 2.0%/y in Current Course & Speed scenario),
• green electrification of road transport, in NZ50 countries and in China,
• phasing-out coal in NZ50 countries, a sharp reduction in China and slight growth in the Global South countries,
• use of natural gas as a transition energy for electricity and industry in all countries,
• increasing use of hydrogen after 2030 in the NZ50 countries and China, particularly in industry, and
• the levelling off of global demand for plastics and the deployment of recycling in NZ50 countries. In this scenario, fossil fuels still cover half of the growth in energy demand in Global South due to insufficient low-carbon investment. It results in a temperature increase of 2.1 to 2.2°C by 2100.

Ruptureis 

Ruptureis a scenario designed to achieve a temperature increase of less than 2°C by 2100. It implies:

• a wide diffusion to the whole world of the decarbonization levers developed by NZ50 countries and China, while meeting the legitimate growth expectations of Global South,
• an increased penetration of electricity and renewable energies in Global South,
• an even more significant reduction of coal in China and Global South,
• the extension of the transport revolution: increased penetration of electric vehicles worldwide and sustainable liquid fuels in aviation and marine,
• increased penetration of new energies (green hydrogen in industry and transport, e-fuels, biofuels and biogas.) and
• increased plastics recycling in China and Global South. This transition will not happen without rich countries supporting Global South by promoting a just energy transition (through investment, technology transfer, training, etc.). It yields a temperature increase of 1.7 to 1.8°C by 2100.

 Key findings 

• The energy transition has started, but 2022 saw a further increase in energy-related CO₂ emissions. Despite their commitments, many NZ50 countries continue to burn coal to generate electricity, producing ~2 Gt of CO₂ emissions (some even increased their coal-fired electricity generation in 2022).
• The pace and scale of deployment of the new low-carbon energy system needs to be significantly accelerated:
  • promote better use of energy and massive progress in energy efficiency,
  • accelerate the increase in investment in clean energy worldwide, not just in OECD countries,
  • and finally, that the developed economies commit to fully support the Global South’s transition (through financial, technological, and skills transfers).
• Another challenge is to reduce fossil fuel consumption at the right pace:
  • In Global South, fossil fuels remain an affordable solution for providing growing populations with access to energy, and therefore greater prosperity.
  • In NZ50 countries, an accelerated transition means retiring existing assets at country, industry, and household levels, and investing in new low-carbon assets.
  • The transition will not take place without social acceptability (both between North and South and within NZ50 countries) and without genuine efforts in terms of climate justice.
• In the short term, no-regrets actions are:
  • phase-out coal from the electricity mix in NZ50 countries,
  • invest massively in electricity networks and adapt them to the complexity of the low-carbon electricity system,
  • tend towards elimination of methane emissions from fossil fuel production processes,
  • decarbonize road transport,
  • and support the energy transition in the Global South through North-South financing, technology transfer and training.