GMS: Uncertainty around US tariffs shakes markets

As Team Trump finally concedes defeat and retreats on its tariff plans, not only for the entire world but also for China, confirming that the tariffs won’t be “anywhere near the 145%” as originally tweeted, some see a semblance of sanity while others suspect ‘market manipulation’ to help the 1%. The masses are calling on the SEC to investigate Trump’s actions during the week. As the drama unfolded, markets soared back only to start declining again as the U.S. Treasury faces worrying trends, including a massive sell-off of U.S. dollars from various nations, eroding faith in the U.S. financial stability. More importantly, an ongoing sell-off of U.S. Treasury Bonds is causing a growing rift between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the White House.

The flip-flops from the White House are causing global markets to remain precarious as freight and oil prices reversed course this week. Charter rates jumped 1.5% by Friday’s close, while oil receded over 1%, ending the week at USD 63/barrel. OPEC+ countries are reportedly seeing the White House’s latest stance and are advocating for accelerated output through June. Trump, after meeting with Pres. Zelenskyy at Pope Francis’s funeral on Saturday, commented that the Russia/Ukraine conflict might be closer to an agreement. Despite this, Team Trump’s trade stance against China remains firm, and Pres. Xi acknowledges this, leaving a dire situation for many, especially as auto and medicinal trade, finances, stock markets, school/college, and retirement savings will likely be affected moving forward. Student & intellectual migration and global tourism will degrade, especially as the safety of visitors in foreign countries—and even their home countries—becomes more uncertain. The world may have slipped past President Trump’s playful grip this week.

Although some momentum was generated in sub-continent markets after the 90-day tariff pause was announced, ship recycling markets remain cautiously stalled. The ambiguity around U.S.-China tariffs continues to cause volatility in recycling nation steel plate prices & currencies, keeping vessel offerings & sentiments in check. The ongoing restriction on issuing No Objection Certificates (NOCs) in Bangladesh has delayed fresh arrivals, though some vessels managed to find a way to deliver. Pakistan has disappeared into ‘Empty Port Position’ territory, while India’s recently firmer prices have made it the busiest anchorage of the week, with nearly 40K LDT idling at Alang. Meanwhile, Turkey’s market looks like its bottom has fallen out, as levels across the board (offers and fundamentals) fell sharply.

Overall, as the supply of tonnage has yet to pick up and with Easter holidays across Europe over, charter fixtures remain solid and will likely continue to deprive recycling markets of much-needed tonnage for yet another week. It’s already May 2025 next week!

For Week 17 of 2025, GMS Market Rankings / vessel indications are as below: