Dryad Global has issued its weekly Maritime Security Threat Analysis (MSTA), highlighting the escalating situation in the Middle East and the threat it poses on maritime security.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East
According to Dryad Global, tensions in the Middle East have escalated significantly. Israel has intensified its operations against Hezbollah following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah on 28 September 2024, leading to a significant increase in Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Iran launched a major missile attack on Israel, codenamed Operation True Promise 2, on 01 October 2024, involving around 200 ballistic missiles in response to the killing of key figures within Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups. Despite the scale, most missiles were intercepted by Israel’s defense systems, indicating a failure in Iran’s strategy to overwhelm these defenses.
On 17 October 2024, the United States and NATO intervened directly in Yemen, striking Houthi targets with B-2 Spirit bombers for the first time in the conflict. An assassination attempt on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu occurred on 19 October 2024, when a drone targeted his Caesarea, Israel, home. Iranian statements and the timing of the incident with other Hezbollah operations indicate that Hezbollah was directly involved. The US confirmed on 21 October 2024 the deployment of a THAAD battery to Israel, accompanied by approximately 100 US military personnel to operate the system.
Operation Swords of Iron in Gaza
In the meanwhile, Israel is continuing Operation Swords of Iron. This operation includes extensive aerial bombardments, ground incursions, and targeted strikes across Gaza. The goal is to destroy Hamas’s military infrastructure and return hostages. However, progress is hindered by resistance from Palestinian groups and stalled advances in certain areas. The conflict’s expansion into southern Lebanon and involvement by Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups adds complexity to the situation. As of 21 October 2024, 97 Israeli hostages remain in Hamas custody.
Following the attempted assassination of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is expected to intensify its military operations. This could include more aggressive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, as well as more direct targeting of Iranian assets or proxies, potentially including Syria or Iran itself. Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have already stated that such attacks will not go unanswered, potentially rallying international support for Israeli military action.
The escalation dynamics of the Middle East’s instability are substantial, with the direct involvement of Iran through missile strikes against Israel marking a significant escalation. The death of Hezbollah’s leadership and subsequent Israeli operations have further destabilized Lebanon, traditionally a hotspot for proxy wars.
The US-led strikes against the Houthis indicate NATO’s interest in preventing the conflict from spilling over into a wider regional or global conflict. Iran appears to be attempting to strike a balance between demonstrating strength to its domestic audience and avoiding a full-scale war that could result in crippling economic sanctions or direct military confrontation with NATO forces.
Increase in maritime robberies in the Bay of Campeche
The Bay of Campeche has seen an increase in maritime robberies, particularly targeting offshore vessels and oil platforms. Sea pirates operate in small fishing boats and are typically armed with pistols. In one incident on 14 October 2024, the perpetrators stole crew property, mobile phones, computers, and other equipment, including SCBA. They instructed the crew to share their bank account information and made transfers to another account while on board the ship.
These incidents have been attributed to organized crime groups, particularly those linked to drug cartels, who are known to operate in maritime environments for drug trafficking and could be diversifying into piracy due to potential profits from stealing oil or equipment. Governance issues contribute to the region’s vulnerability, as weak maritime policing, surveillance, and rapid response capabilities allow these incidents to occur with relative impunity. The bay’s geographical advantages, such as long coastlines and numerous oil platforms, provide ample hiding places and operational advantages for pirates.
The situation in the Bay of Campeche shows signs of potentially becoming a more established piracy cluster if left unchecked. If the trend continues without significant intervention, it could have broader implications, including increased costs for security measures, potential production delays, or temporary shutdowns of platforms due to safety concerns.
