The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has recently issued its latest analysis of the global trade and container shipping in which they assessed the main drivers of demand, considering how they might affect global container shipping through 2020. In doing so, they sought to answer the question, ”Was the 2015 dip cyclical or an indication of a new normal for global trade”?
The answer to this question, BCG developed bearish and bullish scenarios that represent the lower and upper limits of what could happen, as well as a base scenario that represents a more moderate picture. Using such scenarios, a carrier can plan its investments for the fleet. It can also prepare the company to navigate effectively in the soft market we expect for the next several years.
The base scenario anticipates a GDP multiplier closer to 1.5 in 2020. But since the multiplier is a backward-looking indicator, BCG propose 15 more forward-looking trends. Instead of examining one indicator, carriers would benefit by closely following a set of trends. The reason is that forces shaping the industry—including the introduction of counterbalancing effects in which various forces push trade volume movements in different directions—have grown more complex. To anticipate market developments, carriers must analyze a wider range of trends than in the past, especially those trends that can shed the most light on what might happen in the future.
View the following infographic by BCG to learn about the trends that will affect the industry, according to BCG analysis:
Source: Boston Consulting Group
