ABS published the report “Setting the Course to Low Carbon Shipping: View of the Value Chain”, providing insight into alternative fuels, their life-cycle emissions and challenges associated with adopting low- and zero-carbon fuels.
According to the report, alternative fuels are expected to yield the most benefits for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the marine and offshore sectors.
However, there are many challenges with the production of low- and zero-carbon fuels to meet the needs for the entire global fleet.
It remains unclear whether some low-carbon energy sources will deliver the base-load power required for international shipping. For fossil-sourced fuels, carbon neutrality is highly dependent on the efficiency of emission-control methods such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
says ABS.
In addition, the cost and scale up of fuel production from renewable energy is also significant. In order to replace heavy fuel oil (HFO), marine gas oil (MGO) and liquified natural gas (LNG) with green fuels, the required renewable power production, at 60% efficiency, would be equal to approximately seven times the wind power and eight times the solar power produced in 2019.
Furthermore, analysis of qualified ships from five key shipping categories — bulk carriers, tankers, gas carriers, LNG carriers and containerships — revealed the following about compliance with the IMO’s EEXI regulation:
- A large fraction of the global tanker fleet (60 to 70 percent) is expected to have difficulty meeting the EEXI requirements. Smaller dwt segments, such as aframax tankers, are expected to meet the requirements more
comfortably than larger tankers. - A similarly large fraction of the global bulk carrier fleet (60 to 70 percent) is expected to also have difficulty meeting the EEXI requirements. Again, smaller dwt segments, such as panamax bulker, are expected to meet the
requirements more comfortably than larger vessels, such as capesizes or very large ore carriers (VLOCs). - Gas carriers — particularly those of higher dwt capacity — have proven capable to meet the EEXI requirements.
- LNG carriers with dual-fuel or tri-fuel diesel electric propulsion or two-stroke dual-fuel engines are expected to meet the EEXI regulations. However, those LNG carriers propelled by steam turbines will face significant challenges.
- Containerships above 80,000 dwt are expected to meet the EEXI requirements. However, smaller dwt segments are expected to face some challenges with EEXI compliance.
Fuel life analysis
As for the fuel life analysis, the current regulatory framework focuses on vessel emissions (tank-to-wake) rather than the life-cycle emissions of a fuel (well-to-wake), even though the industry recognizes that the latter provides a more accurate assessment of the carbon footprint of a given fuel across its life cycle.
Furthermore, the life-cycle analysis clearly identifies the need for green ammonia and hydrogen production in order to have meaningful GHG emissions reduction from these zero-carbon fuels.
What is more, the required scale up of technology for green fuel production is significant (by an order of magnitude) before they can be widely adopted by the global feet. Currently, according to the report, LNG can provide almost 25% reduction in carbon emissions on a tank-to-wake basis; however, on a well-towake basis the reduction drops to six to 16% depending on the engine technology.
Continuing, ammonia offers very low well-to-wake emissions, but the use of pilot oil contributes to carbon emissions from the vessel. As for biofuels, ABS says that they do not offer any tank-to-wake emissions reduction, but they can offer benefits on the well-to-tank component. However, the feedstock and production pathway greatly affect the well-to-tank emissions of biofuels.
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