Thousands of miles of buried fiber optic cable in densely populated coastal regions of the US may soon be overflown by rising seas, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and the University of Oregon.
The study presents critical communications infrastructure that could be submerged by rising seas in as soon as 15 years, according to the study’s senior author, Paul Barford, a UW–Madison professor of computer science.
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The study suggests that by the year 2033 more than 4,000 miles of buried fiber optic conduit will be underwater and more than 1,100 traffic hubs will be surrounded by water. The most susceptible US cities are New York, Miami and Seattle, but the effects would not be confined to those areas.
In fact, many of the conduits at risk are already close to sea level and only a slight rise in ocean levels due to melting polar ice and climate warming will be needed to expose buried fiber optic cables to sea water.
Buried fiber optic cables will thus have problems as despite being water-resistant, they are not waterproof.
What is more, the impact of mitigation measures such as sea walls, according to the study, are difficult to predict. Paul Barford, a UW–Madison professor of computer science, mentioned:
The first instinct will be to harden the infrastructure. But keeping the sea at bay is hard. We can probably buy a little time, but in the long run it’s just not going to be effective.
The peer-reviewed study combined data from the Internet Atlas, a global map of the internet’s physical structure, and projections of sea level incursion from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
