Transforming the power sector alone will only get the world one-third of the way to net-zero emissions, a new IEA report says, highlighting the need for greater efforts in other key sectors, such as transport, buildings and industry.
The IEA’s ‘Energy Technology Perspectives 2020’ report analyses more than 800 different technology options to assess what would need to happen to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 while ensuring a resilient and secure energy system.
Among the key findings is that transitioning just the power sector to clean energy would get the world only one-third of the way to net-zero emissions. Completing the journey will require devoting far more attention to the transport, industry and buildings sectors, which today account for about 55% of CO2 emissions from the energy system.
Much greater use of electricity in these sectors – for powering electric vehicles, recycling metals, heating buildings and many other tasks – can make the single largest contribution to reaching net-zero emissions, according to the report, although many more technologies will be needed.
More findings
- Quicker progress towards net-zero emissions will depend on faster innovation in electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and CCUS. Just over one‑third of the cumulative emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario stem from technologies that are not commercially available today. In the Faster Innovation Case, this share rises to half. Thirty-five percent of the additional decarbonisation efforts in the Faster Innovation Case come from increased electrification, with around 25% coming from CCUS, around 20% from bioenergy, and around 5% from hydrogen.
- Long-distance transport and heavy industry are home to the hardest emissions to reduce. Energy efficiency, material efficiency and avoided transportation demand (e.g. substituting personal car travel with walking or cycling) all play an important role in reducing emissions in long-distance transport and heavy industries. But nearly 60% of cumulative emissions reductions for these sectors in the Sustainable Development Scenario come from technologies that are only at demonstration and prototype stages today. Hydrogen and CCUS account for around half of cumulative emissions reductions in the steel, cement and chemicals sectors. In the trucking, shipping and aviation sectors, the use of alternative fuels – hydrogen, synthetic fuels and biofuels – ranges between 55% and 80%. Highly competitive global markets, the long lifetime of existing assets, and rapidly increasing demand in certain areas further complicate efforts to reduce emissions in these challenging sectors. Fortunately, the engineering skills and knowledge these sectors possess today are an excellent starting point for commercialising the technologies required for tackling these challenges.
- A secure and sustainable energy system with net-zero emissions results in a new generation of major fuels. The security of today’s global energy system is underpinned in large part by mature global markets in three key fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – which together account for about 70% of global final energy demand. Electricity, hydrogen, synthetic fuels and bioenergy end up accounting for a similar share of demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario as fossil fuels do today.
Despite the difficulties caused by the Covid-19 crisis, several recent developments give us grounds for increasing optimism about the world’s ability to accelerate clean energy transitions and reach its energy and climate goals. Still, major issues remain. This new IEA report not only shows the scale of the challenge but also offers vital guidance for overcoming it,
…said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director.
