DNV GL has released a position paper that presents a methodology for evaluating alternative fuels, adding sustainability and safety considerations. Trends in pricing are an obvious factor to consider when examining the feasibility of new fuels, but sustainability and safety also have an impact on the ultimate affordability of change.
A growing diversity of fuel options has seen LNG becoming well established and opened some potential for biofuels to gradually replace fossil fuels. Electricity from the grid, methanol and hydrogen have their place for certain geographic areas and ship types, too.
“In all cases, the cost associated with machinery, as well as the expected fuel price, will play a dominant role for shipowners as they make changes to their fleet,” says Christos Chryssakis, Senior Researcher at DNV GL.
“However, safety and sustainability have an impact on affordability. Sustainability, assessed from a lifecycle perspective, will determine the availability of various fuels in the future, and could constrain the energy mix locally or globally.
“Novel design solutions may introduce a level of complexity that affects newbuilding costs and operational reliability. Even well-known solutions such as LNG involve considerable ship design and equipment changes to ensure safe operation.” But there are external risks to be considered. A major accident could turn regulators and the general public against an otherwise promising fuel option. “DNV GL advocates that the risks are manageable. One of the premises is that safety should head the agenda from the very beginning of a ship design project,” says Chryssakis.
The position paper analyses affordability, sustainability, safety and reliability and includes case studies involving LNG, shore-based electricity, biofuels (including pyrolysis oil and biomethanol) and hydrogen. It presents the benefits and challenges for each option.
The Fuel Trilemma
Over the next few decades it is likely that the energy mix for shipping will be characterized by a much higher degree of diversification than today. Natural gas will soon be an established fuel type, while liquid biofuels could gradually replace fossil-based fuels, provided that sustainable production is achieved.
Electricity from the grid will be used more frequently for charging batteries for ship operations in ports, and also for short sea propulsion. Renewable electricity or reforming of natural gas could also be used to produce hydrogen, which can be used to power fuel cells. Other types of fuel, such as methanol, will be used in certain geographical areas and ship segments, and, given the right conditions, could develop to play a major role in the future.
In selecting the fuel for a new vessel, there is no “silver bullet” solution. In most cases, selection will be based on a compromise between benefits and drawbacks of various fuel options. The final decision will vary for different ship types, operations, and strategic directions of each ship owner. In all cases, the cost associated with machinery, as well as the expected fuel prices, will play the dominant role. Safety will also be a primary concern and can also be translated into monetary terms once a design has been established and the necessary safety measures identified. Sustainability will be a parameter of increasing importance in the future, both for reasons related to corporate social responsibility, but also because there may be a price tag attached, perhaps in the form of a carbon price, or through other schemes based on the “polluter pays” principle.
“The Fuel Trilemma: Next Generation of Marine Fuels” looks at the rapidly diversifying fuel market from the perspective of affordability, sustainability and safety. These three factors will govern the importance of any energy source chosen to meet regulatory requirements for CO2, SOx and NOx – requirements that are already pushing the limits of what can be achieved with conventional fuels and exhaust gas cleaning technology.
In the Position Paper it is argued that for any fuel or energy source to play an important role in the future, three main conditions should be fulfilled:
- Affordability: the cost of producing and using a fuel is the single most important parameter for a fuel choice decision. Emerging fuel technologies are often at a disadvantage in comparison with well-established conventional fuel sources. The cost of a fuel is closely related to its availability, and this may vary according to geographical area. However, other expenses, such as the cost of carbon emissions, should also be taken into account in the future.
- Sustainability: this can be described as the environmental footprint of using a certain fuel from a lifecycle perspective. Fuel production and utilization should be as environmentally friendly as possible, in quantities that can meet demand, and without compromising our future ability to use this fuel.
- Safety: While safety considerations are usually not the primary concern when new fuel or energy types are being considered, ensuring an acceptable safety level can increase the complexity of the systems and elevate costs. If a fuel is considered unsafe, it will not be widely adopted. Major accidents during the early phase of using a new fuel can have a detrimental impact for the future of the fuel.
A growing diversity of fuel options has seen LNG becoming well established and opened some potential for biofuels to gradually replace fossil fuels. Electricity from the grid, methanol and hydrogen have their place for certain geographic areas and ship types, too.
“In all cases, the cost associated with machinery, as well as the expected fuel price, will play a dominant role for shipowners as they make changes to their fleet,” says Christos Chryssakis, Senior Researcher at DNV GL.
“However, safety and sustainability have an impact on affordability. Sustainability, assessed from a lifecycle perspective, will determine the availability of various fuels in the future, and could constrain the energy mix locally or globally.
“Novel design solutions may introduce a level of complexity that affects newbuilding costs and operational reliability. Even well-known solutions such as LNG involve considerable ship design and equipment changes to ensure safe operation.” But there are external risks to be considered. A major accident could turn regulators and the general public against an otherwise promising fuel option.
“DNV GL advocates that the risks are manageable. One of the premises is that safety should head the agenda from the very beginning of a ship design project,” says Chryssakis.
You may view the position paper by clicking below:
Source and Image Credit: DNV GL
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