Stepping into 2025, the container trading landscape continues to be shaped by elevated secondhand container prices, driven by uncertainties owing to geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and tariff threats, Container xChange highlights.
According to the latest Container xChange Forecaster report, price trends observed in late 2024 and expected to persist into the first quarter of 2025 imply higher asset costs for container traders, impacting profitability in the short term.
Impact of geopolitical tensions and economic pressures
At the start of the year, the container market in the United States is abuzz with speculation that Chinese manufacturers and wholesalers will flood the U.S. and Canada with used containers, as they reportedly have significant stockpiles of these units. On another note, following the steel price increase, there is a general belief that prices will rise considerably.
However, there’s notable skepticism about the implementation of tariffs promised during Trump’s campaign, which may influence trade flows. It’s worth highlighting that taxation on used containers is generally lower than on brand-new units, a factor that could shape the strategic decisions of manufacturers and wholesalers in this space in the coming times.
Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, bringing stricter sanctions and compliance requirements. This adds complexity for container owners and users in selecting partners and ensuring adherence to evolving regulations. Strategic foresight and robust compliance frameworks will be critical to success in 2025.
…said Christian Roeloffs, Co-founder and CEO, Container xChange.
Chinese New Year and impact on container trade
As we approach the Lunar New Year, container activity across the APAC region is slowing, with freight forwarders focused on clearing cargoes before trucking and port operations wind down for the holidays. Post-New Year, it typically takes manufacturers 1-2 weeks to regain operational momentum, and container leasing rates are expected to remain subdued until mid to late February. The average prices for 40 ft high cube containers in China declined by 5% month on month across locations in December.
Revival in U.S. import volumes in 2024
Container xChange studied the official port data and compared Year-to-Date (YTD) loaded import volumes at major U.S. ports from January to November (as the December data had not been uploaded at the time of writing this forecast). The data indicates that the Transpacific Eastbound trade has recovered substantially after the 2023 dip, with a strong rebound at major West Coast ports in 2024.
Furthermore, port diversification strategies implemented by shippers during the pandemic are still influencing cargo flows, with Houston and NYNJ retaining relevance. Market recovery in 2024 signals improved demand and possibly better supply chain conditions compared to 2023.
The rebound at LA and LB in 2024 suggests cargo is returning to traditional West Coast gateways. Consistently growing volumes from 2019 to 2024 at the port of Houston show the Gulf Coast’s increasing role in U.S. trade.
Labor Strikes and tariff risks: Implications for container traders
In light of the upcoming USMX and ILA contract negotiations scheduled for January 15, carriers are cautioning their customers and adding General Rate Increases (GRI) as one of many initiatives.
This anticipation has already led to a significant pull-forward of orders since November 2024, helping sustain elevated container and freight rates. This trend is expected to persist through January 2025 , driven by two major factors: first, the contract negotiations and their potential impact on supply chain stability, and second, the Chinese New Year, which falls on January 29 this year, traditionally a period of heightened shipping activity.
Strategies for container traders to navigate potential labor strikes
- Diversify Port Usage: Consider routing shipments through ports not affected by the strike, such as those on the West Coast or in Canada and Mexico, to maintain supply chain continuity.
- Advance Shipments: Where possible, expedite shipments ahead of the strike deadline to avoid potential delays and associated costs.
- Increase Inventory Levels: Build up inventory in anticipation of disruptions to ensure the ability to meet customer demand during the strike period.
- Strengthen Supplier Relationships: Collaborate closely with suppliers to develop contingency plans and ensure clear communication throughout the disruption.
- Monitor Regulatory Developments: Stay informed about labor negotiations and potential government interventions that could influence the duration and impact of the strike.
Over the past year (December 2023 to December 2024), global container prices have experienced significant shifts, with certain locations witnessing remarkable growth while others faced sharp declines.
