The 20th edition of the Global Risks Report 2025 reveals an increasingly fractured global landscape – where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological challenges threaten stability and progress.
Declining optimism
According to the report, over the last year, the world witnessed the expansion and escalation of conflicts, extreme weather events amplified by climate change, widespread societal and political polarization, and continued technological advancements accelerating the spread of false or misleading information. Optimism is limited as the risk of miscalculation or misjudgment by political and military actors remains high.
It seems that it is one of the most divided times since the Cold War, and this is reflected in the results of the GRPS, which reveal a bleak outlook across all three time horizons – current, short-term and long-term.
Environmental risks go from long a term concern to urgent reality
The impacts of environmental risks have worsened in intensity and frequency since the Global Risks Report was launched in 2006. The outlook for environmental risks over the next decade is alarming, with all 33 risks in the GRPS expected to worsen in severity from the two-year to the 10-year time horizon, but environmental risks show the most significant deterioration.
Extreme weather events are anticipated to become an even greater concern, ranked as the top risk over the 10-year horizon for the second year in a row. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse ranks #2 over the 10-year horizon, showing a significant deterioration compared to its two-year ranking.
Technological risks are still “under the radar”
In a year of considerable experimentation with AI tools by companies and individuals, concerns about adverse outcomes of AI technologies are low in the two-year risk ranking. However, complacency should be avoided given the rapid pace of change in AI and its increasing ubiquity. Adverse outcomes of AI technologies are among the risks that climb the most in the 10-year risk ranking compared to the two-year ranking.
Is consensus possible in a fragmenting world?
Deepening divisions and increasing fragmentation are reshaping international relations, questioning whether existing structures can address the collective challenges we face. Global cooperation across geopolitics, humanitarian issues, economic relations, and environmental, societal, and technological challenges may reach new lows in the coming years. Key countries appear to be turning inward, focusing on domestic economic and societal concerns, when they should be strengthening multilateral ties to confront shared challenges.
The decade ahead will be pivotal as leaders face increasingly complex global risks. To avoid a downward spiral that harms citizens worldwide, the only option is to find avenues for dialogue and collaboration.
The world in 2025
The current geopolitical climate, shaped by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Sudan, makes it hard not to consider such events when assessing the global risk expected to present a material crisis in 2025. Geopolitical tensions are also linked to the rising risk of geoeconomic confrontation (sanctions, tariffs, investment screening), ranked #3, driven by inequality, societal polarization, and other factors.
Extreme weather events are also a significant concern, with 14% of respondents selecting it. The impact of climate change is becoming more evident each year, as pollution from fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Recent examples include heatwaves in Asia, flooding in Brazil, Indonesia, and Europe, wildfires in Canada, and hurricanes Helene and Milton in the United States.
Similar to last year, misinformation and disinformation, as well as societal polarization, remain key current risks, ranking #4 and #5, respectively. A growing sense of societal fragmentation is evident, with four of the top 10 risks expected to present a material crisis in 2025 being societal in nature, including societal polarization (6% of respondents).
Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment (3%), erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms (2%), and inequality (2%) are also concerns. On the economic front, inflation is seen as less of a concern this year than in 2024. However, perceptions of the overall economic outlook for 2025 remain fairly pessimistic across all age groups. The risk of an economic downturn (recession, stagnation) continues to be a common worry, ranking #6 (5% of respondents), the same as last year.
The path to 2027
The global outlook for 2027 shows increased cynicism among survey respondents, with 31% anticipating turbulence, a four-percentage-point rise from last year’s edition. There is also a two-percentage-point increase to 5% in those expecting a stormy outlook – the most alarming of the five categories – for the next two years. The top risk for 2027, for the second consecutive year since its introduction in the GRPS risk list in 2022-23, is misinformation and disinformation.