Study reveals
Rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is poised to open the region to many more kinds of ocean-going vessels than it has been at any point in modern human history, according to a new study.
This shift could dramatically increase trans-Arctic commerce during at least a few weeks out of the year, even opening up temporary “supra-polar” routes along which moderately ice-strengthened ships could sail directly over the North Pole, slashing days off the travel time between Europe and the Far East.
The study, published on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the first to pair computer model projections of Arctic sea ice during the month of September, when sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum, with projections of future shipping trends.
Laurence C. Smith, the study’s lead author and a professor in the geography department at the University of California Los Angeles, said that even a moderate amount of warming will open the Arctic up to a degree that would have been unthinkable to prior generations of polar explorers, many of whom died trying to find viable sea routes across the Arctic.
For example, the study found that the Northern Sea Route along the Russian Coast, which is already used by ice-strengthened ships to transport goods between Europe, Russia, and China, is likely to become even more accessible, including to non-ice-hardened vessels, the study found.
According to the study, during the 1979-2005 period, sea ice limited the probability of an open-water transit along the Northern Sea Route to just 15 percent in any given year. The study projects those odds will increase to 94 to 98 percent by 2040-2059, depending on how much the Arctic warms during the period.
Meanwhile, ships that have been modified to withstand encounters with some ice floes may be able to sail straight across the pole, bypassing Russian waters and thereby saving time and money, since Russia currently charges hefty icebreaker escort fees for vessels traversing its Arctic waters.
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Source: The Huffington Post