Tanker shipping's fortunes rest on US shale oil production
How much US shale oil production is taken out of service will be a key driver of future tanker shipping earnings, according to the latest edition of the Tanker Forecaster, published by global shipping consultancy Drewry. Tanker operators are pinning their hopes on a rise in US crude oil imports as domestic shale oil extraction becomes increasingly unprofitable. Low oil prices have made crude extraction unprofitable for many US producers, leading to a fall in US rig counts and shrinking exploration and production investment. “Continued expansion of refinery capacity in Asia is likely to maintain growth in the global oil trade over the next five years,” said Rajesh Verma, Drewry’s tanker shipping lead analyst. “But demand from Asia alone will not be sufficient to sustain the improvement in tonnage utilisation. The only alternative source of growth is a recovery in US oil imports, especially when declining European refinery capacity will mean lower import volumes to EU countries.” Following two years of slow growth, the global trade in oil has accelerated over the past nine months due to increased stocking. And Drewry expects this trend to continue through to the end of 2016. However, thereafter we expect the influence of ...
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