According to EIA, the US will lead the global oil supply development in the five years following, due to its shale industry strength, while also triggering a fast transformation of global oil markets. By the end of the forecast, US oil exports will pass Russia and close in on Saudi Arabia, providing a greater diversity of supply.
Although, similar to China slowing down, global oil demand is expected to ease, it still rises an annual average of 1.2 mb/d to 2024.
Yet, IEA keeps on seeing no peak in oil demand, as petrochemicals and jet fuel remain the key drivers of growth, particularly in the U.S. and Asia, more than offsetting a slowdown in gasoline due to efficiency gains and electric cars.
Moreover, IEA supports that global oil market alters are due to have long-lasting implications on energy security and market balances throughout our forecast period to 2024.
US is leading the path to the global oil supplies, and for the time being holds the 70% of the increase in global capacity to 2024. In the meantime, significant growth is also experienced between other non-OPEC producers, including Brazil, Norway and new producer Guyana.
Continuing, IEA states that Iraq keeps its position as one of the world’s top producers. As it is also being the world’s third-largest source of new supply, it is also developing within OPEC to 2024.
In the longer term, security of supply is linked to upstream investment. Preliminary investment plans by major international oil companies indicate that upstream investment is set to rise in 2019 for the third straight year. For the first time since the 2015 downturn, investment in conventional assets could increase faster than for the shale industry.
