With more people using energy to improve their lives, global demand for energy is expected to climb about 25 percent higher in 2040 than it was in 2015, and would soar significantly higher – closer to a 100 percent increase – but for anticipated efficiency gains across the economy, ExxonMobil said in the 2017 edition of The Outlook for Energy.
Essentially all of this demand growth will come from non-OECD nations, particularly the expanding economies in the Asia Pacific region. Continuing urbanization and a significant expansion of the middle class, particularly in China and India, will help drive this trend, highlighted by greater access to modern energy in homes, rising industrial demand, and significant increases in personal and commercial transportation needs.
Growth in global energy demand will be led by the increasing electrification of the global economy; 55 percent of the world’s energy demand growth over the next quarter century will be tied to power generation to support our increasingly digital and plugged-in lives. A consequence of this trend will be a large uptick in demand for many types of energy used to generate electricity, notably less carbon-intensive sources such as natural gas, nuclear, solar and wind.
Meeting energy demand safely, reliably and affordably – while also minimizing risks and environmental impacts – will require advanced technology and expanded trade and investment. It will require innovation. And it also will require smart, practical energy choices by governments, individuals and businesses.
Understanding the factors that drive the world’s energy needs – and likely choices to meet those needs – is the mission of the Outlook.
The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-range forecast developed by its economists, engineers and scientists through data-driven analysis. It examines energy supply and demand trends for approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 different energy types.
“By sharing the Outlook with the public, we hope to broaden that understanding among individuals, businesses and governments. Energy matters to everyone, and we all play a role in shaping its future. “
The next quarter century will witness a number of developments driven by technology advances and policy decisions that will substantially influence the world’s greenhouse gas emissions profile. As policymakers develop mechanisms to meet the goals set forth in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the research and development efforts of the world’s scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs will propel energy’s evolution.
Advances will promote not only new energy supply options and greater energy efficiency, but also emerging opportunities for technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS). Between 2015 and 2040, innovation in the transportation sector will deliver significant increases in fuel economy for cars and commercial vehicles. We will also see a shift in the types of energy used for electricity generation, led by natural gas and renewables. Coal’s share of global power generation has been falling recently and will continue to drop, with gains being made by less carbon-intensive energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear, wind and solar.
The initial result will be a continued slowdown in the growth of global carbon dioxide emissions. Global energy-related CO2 emissions are likely to peak during the 2030s and begin to decline – all the more remarkable considering the fact that global GDP is expected to double in the period from 2015 to 2040.
Regional gas demand highlights growth & end-use versatility
As technology unlocks resources previously considered too difficult or costly to produce, the prominence of natural gas in the global energy mix will continue to grow over the period from 2015 to 2040. Total worldwide gas demand is projected to grow by about 45 percent, with growth seen in every sector, particularly power generation. Natural gas production from North America will continue to grow, helping establish the region as a natural gas exporter.
Highlights of the report include:
Further details may be found in the ExxonMobil report herebelow
For more information about The Outlook for Energy, visit www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
