Specifically, EIA's monthly energy review revealed that in the first three months of 2019, energy-related CO2 emissions were largely similar to those in the first three months of 2018.

The first quarter of the year usually is the period which has the highest CO2 emissions in the US, heavily affecting the overall annual trend.

In the past 30 years, only 6 years have had an overall annual emissions trend that was different than that of the year’s first quarter

... EIA highlights.

Accordingly, if the assumptions are realized, 2019 will be the seventh such year with the emissions declining from 2018 values despite the first-quarter increase.

Concerning emissions:

  • CO2 coal emissions will decrease by 169 MMmt in 2019, the largest decrease in CO2 emissions from coal since 2015.
  • CO2 emissions from natural gas will increase by 53 MMmt.
  • CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption, which has risen in each of the past six years, will be virtually flat in 2019.

Moreover, the Administration expects that the mild forecast conditions, based on fore will keep energy demand and will lead to energy-related CO2 emissions below 2018's levels.

Despite the fact that the electric power sector uses more natural gas, EIA does not see an increase in natural gas emissions in 2019 to offset the decrease in coal emissions because natural gas-fired electricity generation is less carbon-intensive than coal-fired electricity generation.