Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) highlighted rising maritime risks illustrated by two key incidents involving a suspected shadow fleet tanker standoff in the Gulf of Finland and severe GPS jamming in the Red Sea that grounded a containership.
Αccording to Dryad Global, these events serve as stark reminders of the evolving threats posed by geopolitical friction and electronic warfare in strategic shipping lanes.
Gulf of Finland: Shadow Fleet Tensions Escalate NATO-Russia Risk
On 13 May 2025, a maritime confrontation unfolded in the Gulf of Finland, when the Estonian Navy intercepted the Russia-bound tanker JAGUAR, flagged to Gabon and recently sanctioned by the UK. Suspected of operating as part of Russia’s shadow fleet, the JAGUAR refused a lawful request to alter course for inspection.
Key Developments:
- Estonia deployed a naval patrol boat, helicopter, and reconnaissance aircraft.
- Russia escalated by sending a Su-35 fighter jet, which briefly violated NATO airspace.
- NATO aircraft, including Polish MiG-29s, were scrambled in response.
- The standoff ended without boarding, but Estonia labelled the incident a serious threat to NATO.
Impact: Expect increased naval patrols and more aggressive enforcement of maritime sanctions in the Baltic. Commercial shipping in the Gulf of Finland may face delays, route diversions, and higher insurance premiums.
Red Sea: GPS Jamming Grounds MSC ANTONIA
Just days earlier, on 10 May 2025, the Liberian-flagged containership MSC ANTONIA ran aground near Eliza Shoals, close to Jeddah Port, Saudi Arabia. The cause of the incident was confirmed as GPS spoofing by hostile actors, which manipulated navigation data and misled the crew.
The vessel was en route from Sudan to Jeddah. Pole Star Global verified GPS interference from falsified GNSS signals. As a result, the vessel remains aground as of 19 May, with environmental and operational risks escalating.
This incident followed UKMTO alerts on 9 May about widespread GNSS disruption across the Red Sea, aligning with Q1 reports showing spoofed location “jumps” of up to 6,300 km, particularly off Sudan.
Threat Outlook: Dryad Global assesses an 80–90% likelihood of continued GPS jamming/spoofing incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden over the coming months. These tactics are increasingly used by both state and non-state actors engaged in regional conflicts.
Strategic implications for global shipping
These incidents reflect growing maritime militarisation and the normalisation of hybrid threats. Both situations, one overtly geopolitical, the other technologically disruptive, signal heightened operational risks:
Baltic Sea: Expect tighter scrutiny of tankers, longer dwell times, and rerouting near Russian and NATO jurisdictions.
Red Sea/Gulf of Aden: Prepare for navigation disruptions and introduce redundant systems (e.g., inertial navigation, radar fixes) to mitigate GPS spoofing threats.
Dryad Global strongly recommends all commercial operators:
- Monitor MSTA updates regularly.
- Review risk mitigation measures, particularly for GNSS interference.
- Reassess routing decisions in regions with escalating naval activity or cyber-electronic interference.
Dryad’s incident data also notes an uptick in maritime events across West Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. While the overall number of hijackings has declined, incidents of armed robbery, attempted boarding, and spoofing remain persistent.
