In an exclusive interview to SAFETY4SEA, Mr. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta, says that this year brings several challenges to the carriers but opportunities to the shippers and explains how the ongoing global supply chain crisis will evolve in the coming years, according to Xeneta data.
As far it concerns the recent trends, Mr. Sand argues that we should not only discuss about industry’s decarbonization but also of global supply chain while noting that maritime digitalization is still in its early stages.
SAFETY4SEA: The global economy is facing significant headwinds: the lingering effects of the pandemic on supply chains, climate change, and geopolitical instability. How do you see some of the challenges playing out and how should maritime stakeholders respond?
Peter Sand: 2023 brings around challenges mainly to the carriers and opportunities mainly for the shippers – if you judge the outlook on Xeneta data and container shipping freight rates only. Container shipping overcapacity will once again be dominating the market, bringing spot and contract freight rates down, benefitting the transportation costs of the shippers – and charter rates too impacting the pure tonnage provider, while lowing the cost for the carriers that use charter-in tonnage on short terms. Still, we foresee container volumes fall by up to 2.5% in 2023, following the decline of 3.9% in 2022. Consumer demand is coming down, as inflation takes its toll on purchasing power and the north American over-spending during the Covid-years comes down again. US retail sales in January were lower than inflation growth for same period – indicating lower volumes to move – and for retailers to import and sell.
S4S: How will the ongoing global supply chain crisis evolve in the coming years from your perspective? What is your advice to stay competitive amid these challenging times?
P.S.: Unwinding of the snarling global supply chains has been going on for about half a year now – with the endgame of it still to come around in the coming half year or so. Congestion is all but gone in the main areas – only the trade lane from North Europe to the US East Coast is still ‘holding up’, due to still above normal port congestion – strikes at ports on land, still solid demand on that trade – and carriers not massively oversupplying that market. The primary way in which shippers can stay competitive is to know their own business well enough to position themselves as a key must-have client for the soon-desperate carriers. Placing essential goods on long term contracts while non-essential goods or inventory shifts can be done on the spot market – risking blanking sailings, roll-over cargo at limited risk. Carriers at their end, should be focused on premier offerings – serving shippers with everything they have dearly missed during the covid-years – incl. resiliency, predictability, and reliability – as well as competitive rates. While freight rates are much lower today that one year ago – they are still volatile – and will increasingly be so, and you can’t simply pay more than your competitors, or you will lose out on your margins as an importing retailer.
S4S: According to data from your platform, have you identified any alarming trends/ key areas that the maritime industry needs to shed its focus on?
P.S.: According to Xeneta’s Crowd-sourced data many trades still have long term contract rates quoted above the spot rates. This is due to the fast-falling rates in the final four months of 2022, as well as the fact that carriers now find themselves operating much more capacity than needed by the shippers. The delay in managing this overcapacity, now see spot freight rates that are loss making on many trades for the carriers. The one exception to the general market, is the westbound transatlantic market – which still by mid-February denies gravity. Our data shows, that shippers can save money from transporting their goods from Europe to the Far East and there from to the US East Coast – instead of a direct journey. Not a popular choice, more an opportunistic one.
S4S: Do you believe the industry is moving in the right direction? What do you see as the defining trends driving the maritime market in the next five years?
P.S.: Decarbonization of the global supply chains is a tall order and a defining trend in coming years and decades. Doing it only for the maritime leg of it – is substantial. Xeneta launched the Carbon Emissions Index in November 2022, making it easier for global shippers to reward their cargo allotments to the carriers with the lowest carbon emission on many trades. Earlier in February 2023, Xeneta published CONTAINER SHIPPING CARRIER RANKING. In the coming weeks more will be disclosed on this.
S4S: What are the lessons learned from the pandemic? What are the next steps in a post pandemic shipping where the challenges of digitization and decarbonization prevail?
P.S: Maritime digitalization is still only at its infancy – with much more to come and much more to benefit from – everywhere. Xeneta’s podcast series Transportation Insights took a deep dive into that topic only last month . After many years of shippers and carriers focusing on CSR and ESG reporting – all with a historic focus – Xeneta CEI is an actionable forward-looking tool – where you can reap many benefits, including not paying extra for a ‘green service’ that may not be that green after all.
S4S: If you could change one thing in the shipping industry from your perspective, what would it be and why?
P.S: Changing the way freight is bought and sold is the vision of Xeneta. We bring transparency to a notoriously in-transparent industry. Making actionable insight available 24/7/365 on 160,000 port-pairs and 40,000 airport-pairs. Unrivalled decision making and benchmarking tool – for a global industry that really craves it.
S4S: Do you have any new projects/ plans that you would like to share with industry stakeholders?
P.S.: Xeneta’s Carbon Emissions Index (CEI) will see many more trades added in the coming months – making the coverage of the tool wider the application even better. We work with many partners – all with a vested interest in the global logistics, this will benefit existing as well as new customers. We are constantly improving on an already solid product.
S4S: What is your message to industry stakeholders with regards to a more sustainable future for the maritime industry?
P.S.: The improved sustainability of global supply chains is one that may not benefit the first-mover, but without them no progression would be happening and responding to this quest is a must. Experiences must be learned at first hand, so don’t hesitate to get started. It can take many forms – but the first and most important is likely to be that of cutting emissions for the fuels used for propulsion.
The views presented hereabove are only those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of SAFETY4SEA and are for information sharing and discussion purposes only.
