The Q2 2023 Shipping Market Overview & Outlook from BIMCO has been released which features an analysis of the tanker shipping market regarding supply and demand.
BIMCO’s chief analyst Niels Rasmussen finds in his report that tanker markets were strong as oil consumption reached new highs. He also predicted an estimate supply growth in the crude tanker segment of 1.1% and 0.5% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Demand
We have increased the cargo demand forecast in our base case scenario and now estimate that crude tanker volumes will increase by between 1% and 2% in both 2023 and 2024.
… stated Niels Rasmussen, chief analyst at BIMCO
This is an increase of 1 percentage point in 2023. For the product tanker market, they similarly increased their 2023 cargo demand growth forecast by 1 percentage point to between 2.5 and 3.5%, while they maintain an estimate of 1% to 2% for 2024.
Supply/demand balance
Even though cargo volumes and ton miles quickly recovered from a seasonal dip early in the year, freight rates have not yet been able to fully match the peaks of the 4th quarter 2022. Earnings, however, remain solid and time charter rates and second-hand ship prices are at their highest levels since the financial crisis of 2008.
The supply/demand balance outlook for both the crude tanker and product tanker sector remains firmly positive. However, the outlook for the product tanker sector is slightly more positive than for the crude tanker sector, Niels Rasmussen highlights.
According to Rasmussen, fleet growth is limited by a very small order book, while oil consumption in 2023 will exceed 2019 levels for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic and grow further in 2024.
