Global trade is expected to be worth about $28 trillion this year – an increase of 23% compared with 2020, but the outlook for 2022 remains very uncertain, as trade and development body UNCTAD reports.
According to UNCTAD recently issued report, global trade growth remained strong during 2021. The value of global trade in goods continued to increase during each quarter of 2021.
Namely, the recovery has been more muted for trade in services, which remains below its levels of 2019. Although global trade is stabilizing, quarter-over-quarter trade growth was still positive in Q3 2021. The value of global trade in goods and services added about 1% to the already high level of the previous quarter.
Global trade growth was about 24% in Q3 2021, on a year-over-year basis, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, with an increase of about 13% relative to Q3 2019.
Valued at about US$ 5.6 trillion, the global trade in goods set a new all-time record in Q3 2021. Trade in services stood at about US$ 1.5 trillion. The quarter-over-quarter growth of trade in goods was about 0.7%, while that of services was about 2.5%.
On a year-over-year basis, the trade growth rate for goods remains substantially higher than for services (22% vs 6%).
Both the trend of a slower growth for the trade in goods, as well as a more positive trend for services, will probably continue in Q4 2021. Trade in goods is expected to remain constant at about US$ 5.6 trillion in Q4 2021, while the trade in services will likely continue to slowly recover.
Overall, 2021 is set to be a strong year for international trade. In 2021, the value of global trade in goods and services is expected to increase by about US$ 5.2 trillion relative to 2020, and by about US$ 2.8 trillion relative to 2019, the equivalent of an increase of about 23 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively. Trade in goods is projected to reach a record level of US$ 22 trillion in 2021. Trade in services should be valued about US$ 6 trillion in 2021, still slightly below its pre-pandemic level.
…the report notes.
Among others UNCTAD notes the above key findings:
- Global trade is expected to reach about US$ 28 trillion in 2021, indicating an increase of 23% with respect to 2020.
- Global trade growth stabilized during the second half of 2021, increasing by 1% quarter-over-quarter. The outlook for 2022 remains very uncertain.
- Trade in goods reached record levels in Q3 2021. Trade in services shows increasing momentum but remains below prepandemic levels.
- Trade growth remains uneven across countries and sectors, but it has been broader in Q3 2021 than in previous quarters.
EXPLORE UNCTAD GLOBAL TRADE REPORT HERE
