WoodMac’s experts focused on the approaching IMO 2020 and the impacts it could possibly have beyond refining and shipping. Research director Sushant Gupta marks that the industry should expect wider light-heavy and sweet-sour crude price differentials.
2020 sulphur cap
The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) will continue paying attention on the way that ocean carriers pass on additional fuels costs that have occurred due to IMO’s 2020 sulphur cap. The regulation could increase fuel costs by as much as one third. FMC is mainly aiming to make sure that ocean carrier bunker charge adjustment formulas are clear and definite, FMC Chairman Michael Khouri informed.
As Reuters reports, prices for Australian heavy-sweet crude grades are increasing since traders rush to gain cargoes for blending ahead of new rules on shipping fuel, placing them among the most expensive crudes in the world.
TORM, a Danish shipping company, stated that IMO sulphur cap will result to an incremental increase in product tanker trade during 2019 and 2020. The 0.5% sulphur regulation and the alter to marine fuel consumption will conclude to higher trade volumes of clean petroleum products, which will benefit the product tanker market.
Ahead of the 2020 sulphur cap, Seabury Maritime notes that the new emissions standards will increase freight rates. In particular, the shipping industry does not have a standard for fuel-surcharges computation, while the costs of low-sulphur fuel are only rough estimates and do not provide a clear picture.
In its 2019 Global Container Shipping Outlook, AlixPartners say that the trade between the US and China, the tariffs imposed because of that, and Brexit will disrupt the container shipping industry throughout the course of 2019. As for the industry as a whole, it could be looking at as much as $10 billion in additional exposure, according to 2018 prices.
The main theme of 2019 for container shipping will be the sharing of the higher costs that are expected in various forms towards the end of the year, as the starting line for the IMO 2020 sulphur cap is getting near. These increased costs will come either because of purchase of fuels, or because of investments in scrubbers that will enable the carriage and consumption of HSFO after 1 March and 1 January deadlines.
EIA published that the implementation of new regulations on marine fuel will affect crude oil and petroleum product markets the following decade. The Administration focuses mainly on the long-term implications of the market changes that will involve changes to ships, marine fuels, refining, and some infrastructure in the next six to eight years.
Euronav highlights its strong 2019 start in the maritime industry and its support to the IMO 2020 regulations. The key options on the table to becoming compliant are scrubbers and compliant fuels, including low-sulphur fuel and alternative marine fuels such as LNG, LPG or even methanol.
The industry’s supply-demand balance will benefit from a reduced demand for Ultra Large Container Vessels among the major carriers, some of which now focus on a bigger prize of becoming global logistics integrators, Simon Heaney, senior manager, container research at Drewry and editor of the Container Forecaster says.
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