By CNSS
The Clean North Sea Shipping project (CNSS) has defined four main scenarios that describe possible future ship emissions in the North Sea as follows:
1. Best case scenario
In the best case scenario, all regulations currently given in MARPOL Annex VI will be in force. In 2020, the global sulphur limit of 0.5%S in fuel will be in force. A NOx emission control area will be implemented in the North and Baltic Seas. LNG will be the cheaper solution in order to comply with the rules. 2000 ships will run on LNG in 2020. In 2030, 6000 ships in the North Sea will run on LNG. Ships that sail more than 50 % in the North and Baltic Seas will preferably use LNG. Some newer ships will also be retrofitted with LNG engines.
2. Worst case scenario
In the worst case scenario, the assumption is that the economy is still down and, in order to put no additional costs on the shipping industry, some regulations on SOx limits will be postponed (SOx limits in ECAs), whereas others will not be implemented (global SOx limit, NOx limits). However, 0.1% S in fuels in ECAs will be considered for 2030 and assumptions about the EEDI will also be taken into account.
3. A third scenario
In a third scenario, the legislation is the same as in the worst case scenario, but LNG is expensive and the LNG infrastructure is not built up to serve many ships with LNG. Therefore, ship owners will prefer low sulphur fuels and catalysts (SCR) or exhaust gas recirculation systems (EGR) to comply with the rules. Older ships will also use scrubbers if they do not have to follow the Tier III regulations.
4. Harbour scenario for OPS
Onshore power supply may reduce harbour emissions. The scenarios are built taking the power that may be supplied to ships in a harbor into consideration. There are three variants, where 5, 10 or 20 ships may be served with electricity at a time. New and big ships will preferably use OPS, and only the power previously generated by auxiliary engines will be replaced. No emissions for generating the onshore power will be considered
Read more at the CNSS
About the CNSS
The project aims to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emission by looking into available technology and the implementation of cost effective and cleaner energy supply infrastructure to ships in harbours/ports at sea. Learn more at http://cnss.no/
