RiskIntelligence: Threats against shipping in the Black Sea

Maritime risk

According to the “Maritime Threats And Security Trends Annual Incident Figures 2024” report, six incidents were reported as suspicious in 2024, four more than during the previous year. While this is a low number compared to the height of the piracy threat in 2019 and 2020, it is important to note that seafarers apparently continue to have concerns about the security situation when they are operating in the region. It is easy to look at the individual incidents and dismiss them for a lack of threatening behaviour.

The simple fact that these cases were officially reported underlines that crews on merchant ships are still not entirely comfortable when their ships are calling at ports or terminals across West and Central Africa.

While this may be partly due to the reputation of the region, it is vital to recognise that the underlying conditions for a resurgence of piracy remain. The security situation on land remains complicated, particularly in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria as well as on the neighbouring Bakassi peninsula in Cameroon.

Kidnap-for-ransom attackers have used bases in these areas in the past, and organised criminal groups remain highly active there. The fact that these groups have chosen to focus on other activities rather than on piracy only shows that these are currently considered to be more lucrative.

Attacks against ports and merchant ships

The total number of incidents is not a significant uptick in threat levels or volatility in relation to maritime operations in the Black Sea. However, it underlines the continuation of the threat picture since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

Most incidents were reported during the late summer and early autumn, which also correlates with the trend in 2023. It is likely that the weather during these months is the most advantageous for military operations. Overall, 16 ships (compared with 12 in 2023) were involved in incidents during 2024, a number which includes local ferries and tugs.

Of these incidents, eight occurred while the ships were in Ukrainian ports where one vessel was impacted by two attacks. One incident involved a vessel during a southbound transit through the Black Sea. At the same time, it is worth noting that with an estimated total of over 3000 vessel transits to the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Pivdenny, and Chornomorsk since July 2023, the number of ships involved in security incidents is relatively low.

One major difference between 2023 and 2024 was the seemingly deliberate targeting of two merchant ships while they were located in the Ukrainian ports of Pivdenny and Odesa respectively. Russia claimed at the time that both vessels were transporting military equipment and were therefore legitimate targets.

The claims were unsubstantiated, and it seems more likely that the attacks were a show of force by the Russian military to prove their capabilities in an attempt to deter merchant ship calls at Ukrainian Black Sea ports.