Experts during the 15th annual Pulse of the Ports Peak Season Forecast at the Port of Long Beach, commented on a slowing domestic economy that will most probably lead to a mediocre uptick in container imports through 2019, after a robust year that experienced a record-high cargo growth due to trade dispute with China.
Specifically, North American imports are expected to increase by 1.8% in 2019, representing a crucial slowdown, in comparison to the 6.1% rise that was achieved last year, Melissa Peralta, senior economist and forecaster for TTX, a railcar pooling company based in Chicago, reported.
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Moreover, the retailers are to slow down their imports in the first half of 2019, firstly because many companies rushed shipments in order to avoid a tariff hike that was supposed to be implemented in late 2018 and then early 2019, but never materialized, Peralta said.
The imports will be affected and in the second half of the year, due to a sluggish US economy, as the initial effects of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 start to fade.
Peralta expects the total US economy to expand by 2.7% during 2019.
In addition, she highlighted that the port will gain advantages from IMO’s 2020 sulphur cap regulation.
Concluding, Peralta noted that although Asian imports have majorly increased over the past decade at East Coast ports, the increased costs are linked to the new fuel regulations could drive shippers back to shorter routes to West Coast ports.
