Committee on the Marine Transportation System (CMTS) has completed the report, “A 10-Year Projection of Maritime Activity in the U.S. Arctic Region,” which provides estimates of vessel traffic (numbers of vessels and transits) based on modeling of current vessel activity patterns, growth potential, and vessel projection scenarios, including diversion from other routes, and oil and gas development.
The report also completes the first milestone of the National Strategy for the Arctic Region (NSAR) 2014 Implementation Plan, which is intended to guide Federal activities related to the construction, maintenance, and improvement of marine transportation Arctic infrastructure.
A conservative estimate of the number of unique vessels operating in the Bering Strait and U.S. Arctic in 2025 is 420, resulting in approximately 877 transits though the Bering Strait, or an increase of 100 percent over current transit levels. The number of vessels for the high-growth scenario – incorporating all of the maximum growth elements for 2025 – is 1262, resulting in approximately 2637 transits, about a 500 percent increase in Bering Strait transits over current levels.
Although the total number of vessels and transits is small when compared with other major shipping routes such as the Great Circle Route in the Pacific, the relative increase in activity is significant for the region. Whether these or other maritime activity projections for the U.S. Arctic will be accurate in 2025 depends on a number of additional elements, including extent of ice-diminished conditions in the Arctic. However, the projections provided by this report do incorporate a large number of variables to provide best estimates of U.S. Arctic maritime activity in 2025, which may be used to complement and provide additional context for decisions regarding Arctic infrastructure support.
Further information may be found by reading the CMTS Report by clicking below:
Source: CMTS
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