DNV GL’s Maritime Forecast 2050 focuses on the energy transition

DNV GL, in line with the Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), published the Maritime Forecast to 2050, providing an independent forecast of the maritime energy future and examining how the energy transition will affect the industry.

The hot topic is now the alternative carbon-neutral fuels, which are essential for achieving International Maritime Organization (IMO) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals in 2050, and the only practical way for shipping to achieve the ultimate vision of full decarbonization as soon as possible before 2100.

This report aims to enhance a shipowner’s ability to navigate technological, regulatory and market uncertainty due to decarbonization – thus  maintaining competitiveness, profitability and value over time.

DNV GL presents two scenarios they followed for assessing ship designs:

1. First, they generate a library of scenarios, each describing a possible development of the future fleet composition, energy use and fuel mix, and carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions to 2050.
2. Second, they analyse how particular fuel-technology alternatives perform commercially in each of our scenarios using a new Panamax bulk carrier as a case study.

The scenarios cover three distinct decarbonization ambitions or pathways:

1. ‘No ambitions’ with no further decarbonization policies;
2. ‘IMO ambitions’ following the targets set in the Initial IMO GHG Strategy;
3. ‘Decarbonization by 2040’ representing a future in which other stakeholders  increasingly apply pressure on the industry with the result that the IMO adjusts its ambitions.

In addition, the report includes  30 scenarios projecting future fleet composition, energy use and fuel mix, and CO2 emissions to 2050. They model 16 different fuel types and 10 fuel-technology systems. The fuels originate from three primary energy sources: renewable electricity to produce electrofuels; sustainable biomass to make biofuels; and fossil fuels to make both conventional fuels and blue fuels.

The report notes that

Regulatory policies and primary energy prices are key drivers for uptake of carbon-neutral fuels and the future fuel mix.

Concluding, DNV GL model 16 different fuel types and 10 fuel technology systems, and analyse how particular fuel-technology alternatives perform commercially in a new Panamax bulk carrier as a case study.

Learn more about the report here.