According to Alphaliner data, the Cape of Good Hope diversions saved liner shipping from overcapacity in 2024.
The global container fleet increased by 10.6% during the past twelve months, with almost 3 Mteu of slots added to the fleet. No less than 1.76 Mteu, or 59%, of this extra capacity was absorbed by the Asia – Europe trade, where many additional ships were needed as services were re-routed via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid dangerous passage through the Red Sea.
Alphaliner’s last analysis on trade in June 2024, showed that capacity had already grown year-on-year by 24%. Months later, the fleet growth stands at 31% and some carriers are still awaiting the delivery of more newbuildings to fill the final gaps in their Asia – Europe schedules. Demonstrating the impact of the addition teu-miles around the Cape, however, weekly capacity offered on the route has risen by a much smaller percentage.
Furthermore, on 1 December 2023, a weekly average of 434,940 slots was offered on the Asia – Europe trade. A year later, on 1 December 2024, this had risen by only 38,360 teu, or 8.8%, as re-routing gobbled up capacity.
The year 2024 will be remembered in liner shipping circles as the (first) year of the Red Sea crisis, just as 2021 and 2022 are now commonly referred to as the lucrative COVID-19 years.
While many commentators were warning of potential overcapacity in 2024, the Cape diversions absorbed so much capacity that the industry terminated the year with almost no idle tonnage (just 0.6% of the total container ship fleet was deemed commercially inactive).
