Waste-based biofuels could be a key driver of the energy transition transforming today’s limited supply of low carbon transportation fuels and creating a local, circular economy, according to Wood Mackenzie.
As the world transitions to new, sustainable energy sources, the biofuel sector may have a crucial part to play. Currently, biofuels only account for 3% of today’s 100 million barrels per day (b/d) liquid fuel demand.
However, developing new technologies that drive biofuel production from municipal waste, agricultural residue and recycling plastics wastes could be a game changer for the energy transition.
According to Wood Mackenzie, this could supply an additional 20 million barrels per day (b/d) of liquid biofuel by 2050, so satisfying a quarter of all future liquid fuel demand (95 million b/d in 2050), equivalent to around three quarters of 2050 middle distillate demand.
Wood Mackenzie vice president Alan Gelder said:
Many governments have understandably pulled away from using food-based biofuels, which has hampered the industry’s growth. However, there still is plenty of opportunity for growth, especially when we look at waste-based alternatives
By using waste material for fuel there will be significant savings on landfill or incineration costs and the related emissions. Bio-based diesel and aviation fuels from plant-based feedstock could emit 80% less carbon than the crude oil-based products that dominate today’s global market.
Various technologies are in development to convert these solid wastes into liquids. These involve pre-treatment to ‘wash’ the materials, followed by thermal cracking (pyrolysis or gasification) to convert the waste into hydrocarbons. The last stage is processing in a conventional refinery to create biofuel versions of the crude oil-based products we use today.
Those incentives could be in the form of a ‘carbon tax credit’ that would create a level playing field with fossil fuel-based products and significantly improve the competitiveness of biofuel.
If all falls into place for waste-based biofuels, the accelerated energy transition projections are dramatic. In Wood Mackenzie’s accelerated energy transition-1.5 scenario, the global demand for liquids would fall to only 35 million b/d by 2050, 60% lower than the base case. Biofuels could meet two-thirds of liquids demand in hard-to-decarbonise transportation sectors, as well as provide circular feedstocks for petrochemicals
said Wood Mackenzie
