BIMCO analysis shows support of the offshore industry
The shipyard industry seemed to head straight for the output-abyss just 15 months ago. Today the transition from recent years’ record high shipyard output to a more sustainable level of output appears to soft-land with global shipyard output clearly slowing down. This BIMCO analysis compares data from December 2011 with data from March 2013, representing a remarkable turn for the shipyard industry.
An integrated part of this soft landing is the evidence of the shifting focus on shipping segments away from the mainstream merchant vessels like dry bulk, tanker and container ships towards the work vessels that primarily serve the offshore oil industry.
Over the past years more and more “ship finance” has ended up being in the support of the offshore industry. This is evident from the fact that the offshore orderbook is the only one which is higher today as compared to 15 months ago. The offshore orderbook includes: FPSO/FSO, drilling ships, offshore support vessels, AHTS, platform supply vessels etc.
What have been the most significant changes?
The short to mid-term future for shipyards, as it appeared in December 2011, has changed dramatically in the following 15 months leading up to the March 2013 status. The massive postponements, delays and cancellations have had a dampening effect on the estimated output of 2011-2013 which now provide the stairs down to the “new normal”, as compared to the three “50+ million CGT peaks” of estimated output 15 months ago. The previous forecast then saw a steep decline to 40+ million CGT in 2014 and 30+ million CGT in 2015 which was also the bottoming out. For the longer term future the estimated total output for 2014-2020 remains the same albeit the turning point, and the degree of the upward going slope has been pushed two years into 2017 with a lower growth rate going forward from there.
The fleet status in 2020
For the combined world merchant fleet (e.g. dry bulk, tankers, container ships) and work vessels (e.g. AHTS, FPSO, offshore support vessels) that we have taken into consideration while doing this analysis, the fleet (in numbers) will grow from 83,177 at the start of 2013 to hit a number just shy of 100k at 99,357 by the end of 2020.
Shipyard overcapacity to remain a potent threat
The true numbers of shipyard capacity is very hard to come around, but with the thin red line and the red area we have indicated the extent to which shipyards have been able to build in the past in combination with recent closedowns. It remains, however, that overcapacity is unlikely to disappear from the surface of the earth, but vacant yards are likely to seek somewhat different employment as new orders are dwarfed by newbuilding slots available.
For more information and to view the Orderbook Development 2011-2013 and the BIMCO estimates for the Shipyard Industry, click here.
Source: BIMCO
