OPEC expects a steady rise in US oil output, as it will gain momentum in the next five years. OPEC also expects the demand for its crude to reduce, in spite of an increasing appetite for energy driven by global economic expansion.
The reduction in demand for OPEC crude is due to a strong non-OPEC supply in the 2017–2023 period, OPEC notes. The US is still the most important source of medium-term supply growth, contributing to two-thirds of new supply.
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In addition, according to Reuters, the US has put oil output to record levels, due to a shale revolution that enabled new technology to unlock reserves previously considered as uneconomic.
What is more, OPEC revised its growth outlook for non-OPEC crude and liquids to 2023, predicting a growth of 4 million bpd more than in last year’s report.
It said non-OPEC would produce 66.1 million bpd of crude and liquids in 2023, up from 57.5 million bpd in 2017.
The United States will increase tight oil production to 13.4 million bpd in 2023 from 7.4 million bpd in 2017, with total U.S. output reaching 20 million bpd, OPEC said. As for OPEC’s crude, this will decline in the mid-term, despite an expansion in oil demand.
Moreover, OPEC raised its forecast for growth in global oil demand, expecting 2020 oil consumption to reach 101.9 million bpd, an increase of 1.2 million bpd from last year’s report.
In the long term, oil demand will increase by 14.5 million bpd to 111.7 million bpd by 2040.Additionally, OPEC hopes to keep a steady share in the global oil supply, because of vast and cheap-to-extract reserves.
