GMS: Indian subcontinent ship recycling markets slow down

After what has certainly been a hectic January of negotiations and a late February/early March of unending deliveries, with nearly 200K of LDT delivered in recent weeks, a period of calm reflection descended across Indian subcontinent ship recycling markets. There has been an alarmingly minimal number of deals fixed in recent weeks, including this one. Since then, prices have remained at or even fallen well under the now-chased USD 450s/LDT across the board (as confirmed by last week’s logger sale into Bangladesh). Barely any sales have even been rumored to take place.

Speaking of this, Bangladesh remains ahead of its regional competitors, with weakening levels still emanating from India and an inadvertently more competitive/stable Pakistan not far behind, snapping at their heels for the slim picking of units available. This has once again presented itself through a severely dithered Alang anchorage and Pakistan’s second delivery in three months this year.

It has been weeks since more than one market unit was concluded into the subcontinent ship recycling markets. Meanwhile, the Baltic’s Dry Bulk Sea Freight Index reported further climbs and registered its highest levels since November 2024, further deviating dry bulk and container freight sectors away from the bidding tables. The firming rates maintain a backlog of vintage/over-aged vessels on the high seas, which has been persistent over the last few years. This will certainly drive global inflation up as logistics become more expensive and trade wars aggravate an already volatile situation. Even oil prices continue to see jitters after they declined another 1% in early-week trading and rose back 0.9% by Friday. Oil closed the week at $67.20 per ton, all in the face of an ongoing oversupply of oil from OPEC+ countries despite a global easing of energy demands.

On the domestic front, there have been mixed signals emanating from the recycling markets. On one hand, the U.S. Dollar has had a stuttering time, weakening against some currencies while strengthening against others. Local steel plate prices have hammered sentiment down further in both India and Pakistan this week. Meanwhile, Chinese plate prices have finally firmed after a long time, which could have a positive effect on subcontinent markets in the long run. Subcontinent levels continue to decline as an equilibrium finally settles things down—but that still remains an “if and when” situation.

For now, the ongoing downtime due to the lack of available tonnage is providing recyclers in both Bangladesh and Pakistan the perfect opportunity to upgrade their yards to HKC standards ahead of its entry into force on June 26th, while a majority (if not all) Alang yards are already HKC-accredited with SoC certifications. Turkey, at the far end, has receded into hibernation due to the ongoing lack of tonnage, with only a marginal private proposal this week.

Finally, many of Trump’s tariff deadlines have now passed, and it will be interesting to see how economies fare now that China is reacting in kind. A number of larger LDT OFAC-listed/sanctioned vessels also remain unsold in cash buyer hands amidst fresh sanctions being imposed on vessels currently idling outside Bangladesh. This highlights, once again, the risks some cash buyers are willing to take and the international laws they are willing to violate, just to make a quick buck!

For Week 11 of 2025, GMS Market Rankings / vessel indications are as below: