According to Gibson, 51% of the total tanker fleet of 25,000 dwt and above are aged 15 years and older with the last couple of years to have seen few deliveries and little scrapping of tankers.
The tanker fleet is aging, with few deliveries, little scrapping and a growing shadow fleet to have kept vessels from being beached the last couple of years. Second-hand asset values surged in the years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as especially older vessels have found ready buyers in the shadow fleet and sanctioned markets with prices far exceeding scrap values.
With 51% of the total tanker fleet of 25,000 dwt and above aged 15 years and older and 22% above the age of 20, it begs the question of how aging has impacted fleet utilisation. Part of the answer lies in shadow and sanctioned fleet activity, with 93% of the shadow fleet aged 15 and over and 64% aged 20 years and older.
According to Gibson, vessels aged over 20 years old spend on average 17% more time in absolute terms anchored or moored across size classes compared to those under 20 years old. The strongest difference was seen in VLCCs, with a 32% increase in days spent moored or anchored. In terms of their laden status, vessels aged over 20 years old spend on average 14% more time ballasting in absolute numbers compared to vessels under 20.
Additionally, the strongest difference was seen in MRs, which saw an increase of 22% in time spent ballasting. Predictably, tanker utilisation thus decreases with age. Vessel utilization changes further if the ship in question is sanctioned, though this differs across size classes. Sanctioned VLCCs over 20 years old are moored or anchored around 67% of the time, and 38% of the time laden with cargo, compared with 59% and 39% for unsanctioned vessels over the age of 20 respectively, indicating lower levels of trading.
On the other hand, sanctioned Handies regardless of age, spent more time laden than unsanctioned Handies under 20 years old. The sanctioned fleet has grown significantly so far this year, and the data indicate that sanctioned vessels have in 2025 so far spent a greater share of their time moored or anchored than in 2024.
Assessing these statistics is fraught with difficulties, as already regular gaps in AIS data multiply beyond the age of 20, especially in the case of possible shadow activity. Notably, sanctioned vessels across age classes share AIS data more frequently than unsanctioned vessels over the age of 20. Vessels over the age of 20 have less diverse trading patterns and spend more time trading East of Suez than vessels under 20.
Hotspots for older vessels can be found off the coast of Singapore (both transiting the Malacca Strait and EOPL), China, and Venezuela, as well as in the AG, in line with Gibson’s understanding of shadow and sanctioned fleet trading patterns. Sanctioned vessels also regularly try to “spoof” their AIS position to appear to be undertaking legal activity.
Next year will see a reprieve in aging, as many of the vessels ordered during the boom of the last couple of years will hit the water. Beyond that the outlook is more uncertain, though barring significantly more ordering or changes in scrapping dynamics the fleet will keep aging.
As vessels age, their utilisation decreases, which should be a tailwind for freight rates in years to come. Another consideration is the increased risk of accidents and environmental disasters that an aging fleet poses. A few incidents over the last couple of years have been happening involving shadow fleet vessels, though so far large spills and the additional scrutiny they may bring have largely been avoided.
It may be that more frequent accidents are a matter of time if current aging trends persist.
The big question mark is the shadow fleet, as any normalisation of relations between Russia, Venezuela, Iran and the West could go hand in hand with a wave of scrapping as older vessels find they are unable to return to the conventional market.
The outlook here is difficult to predict and depends on many factors, though the older the vessels are the less likely they are to return to the market if relations normalise. On the other hand, if sanctions are intensified, we could see scrapping delayed further with more vessels joining the dark fleet. In this scenario the fleet will likely keep aging rapidly.
…noted Gibson.
