China is set to receive around 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans between April and May 2025, despite the imposition of new tariffs on American goods, Reuters reports.
These shipments, primarily purchased by state stockpiler Sinograin, will likely be subject to higher duties, with the beans possibly having to be sold at a discount in China due to competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. Sinograin, which typically buys U.S. soybeans for storage due to their lower moisture content, is expected to absorb the tariff costs, as it is unlikely the beans will be sold profitably under the new duty structure.
The escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China have caused disruptions in global soybean trade, with China imposing a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans in March 2025, and additional tariffs raising the total tariff rate to 44% on some shipments.
Despite these challenges, it is not expected that the purchases made by Sinograin will be canceled, as they are backed by the government. However, the future of U.S. soybean exports to China remains uncertain, with nearly 600,000 tons still pending shipment as of late March.
In 2024, China imported a record 105 million tons of soybeans, with Brazil poised to supply a significant portion of China’s soybean needs in the coming months, thanks to a projected record crop. As a result, while U.S. soybean exports to China may continue, Brazil’s dominance in the market will likely increase in the second quarter of 2025, Reuters concludes.
